Integrated population models facilitate ecological understanding and improved management decisions

Arnold, Todd W.; Clark, Robert G.; Koons, David N.; Schaub, Michael

doi:10.1002/jwmg.21404

Cited by 83 publications

(73 citation statements)

References 62 publications

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“…Our results for low apparent survival in scoters suggest that these assessments may need to be revaluated. We recommend modeling white‐winged scoter population dynamics in an integrated framework to explore hypotheses about plausible mechanisms for population changes, including harvest, hence identify potential targets for management in this species (Arnold et al ).…”

Section: Management Implicationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Annual survival in female white‐winged scoters and lesser scaup

Slattery

Clark

2019

J Wildl Manag

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Quantifying survival and understanding underlying sources of variation are important for developing population models and informing management decisions. We estimated apparent survival (i.e., true survival less permanent emigration) for adult female white‐winged scoters (Melanitta fusca) and lesser scaup (Aythya affinis) breeding at a northern boreal forest site in western Canada, 2002–2008. We also evaluated variation in survival relative to indices of breeding status, individual quality, spring weather conditions, local small‐mammal abundance, and overwinter climate. Breeding female scoters had higher apparent survival than did nonbreeding females, suggesting that breeders had higher survival or fidelity to the study area, or that more nonbreeders were transient birds that may have bred elsewhere in subsequent years. Apparent survival rate for breeding female scoters was unrelated to other individual and environmental covariates. Nest‐trapped female scaup had higher apparent survival rates than did prenesting females captured in decoy traps, implying that more pre‐nesters dispersed permanently or died after marking. Nesting female scaup with higher body condition or those in years when small mammals were more abundant had higher apparent survival; associations between survival and other environmental covariates were less certain. Overall, apparent survival rate of breeding adult female scoters was lower than reported for scoters from other North American locations or for other sea duck species, whereas estimates for nesting female scaup were comparable with those from other boreal and prairie‐parkland locations. Our results indicate that for scaup in this region, factors influencing female body condition, such as maintaining high‐quality habitat, areas with abundant food or low disturbance, could improve annual survival. © The Wildlife Society, 2019

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Section: Management Implicationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Annual survival in female white‐winged scoters and lesser scaup

Slattery

Clark

2019

J Wildl Manag

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“…Besbeas et al 2002 for a study on northern lapwing Vanellus venellus and grey heron Ardea cinerea ) and more recently, they have been applied to exploited populations in terrestrial ecosystems (Gauthier et al 2007; Arnold et al 2018). Strikingly, IPM built on exploited populations usually integrate population surveys (of alive individuals), catch-at-age data and capture-mark-recapture-recovery (CMRR) data into age-structured population models (Methot Jr & Wetzel 2013; Arnold et al 2018; Scheuerell et al 2019). This state-of-the-art limited up-to-now the applicability of IPM for two reasons: i) the age of harvested individuals is often not available because its determination is challenging and generally involves expensive and time-demanding analyses.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Efficient use of harvest data: An integrated population model for exploited animal populations

Gamelon

Baubet

Besnard

et al. 2019

Preprint

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1 9 2 0 3 1 marine and terrestrial populations of vertebrates. As individual measures of body mass at both 3 2 capture and death are often collected in fish and terrestrial game species, our model integrates 3 3 capture-mark-recapture-recovery data and data collected at death into a body mass-structured 3 4 population model. It allows the observed number of individuals harvested to be compared 3 5with the expected number and provides accurate estimates of demographic parameters. 3 63. We illustrate the usefulness of this IPM using an emblematic game species distributed 3 7 worldwide, the wild boar Sus scrofa, as a case study. For this species that has increased in 3 8 distribution and abundance over the last decades, the model provides accurate and precise 3 9 annual estimates of key demographic parameters (survival, reproduction, growth) and of 4 0 population size while accounting for imperfect detection and observation error.4 1 3 4. To avoid an overexploitation of declining populations or an under-exploitation of 4 2 increasing populations, it is crucial to gain a good understanding of the dynamics of exploited 4 3 populations. When managers or conservationists have limited demographic data, the IPM 4 4 offers a powerful framework to assess population dynamics. Being highly flexible, the 4 5 approach is broadly applicable to both terrestrial and marine exploited populations for which 4 6 measures of body mass are commonly recorded and more generally, to all populations 4 7 suffering from anthropogenic mortality causes. 4 8 4 9

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“…Integrated population models use an estimate of initial population size together with annual estimates of demographic vital rates in a matrix to project population size estimates forward, and then ‘adjust’ the projections based on other independently observed data. Estimates of population size (Arnold et al 2018) or population counts (Horne et al 2019) are used to adjust projections, but other independent data sources, such as sex or age ratios from harvest data (Fieberg et al 2010) or composition counts (White and Lubow 2002, Arnold et al 2018), can also be used to adjust the projections. However, if any of these data sets are biased (and particularly if they are precise), the integrated population model will reconcile the differences by adjusting other parameter estimates in the direction of the bias (Schaub and Fletcher 2015).…”

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confidence: 99%

Are Composition Surveys for Mule Deer Along Roads or From Helicopters Biased? Lessons from the Field

Conner

McKeever

2020

Wildl. Soc. Bull.

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Monitoring sex and age ratios (i.e., population composition) is common practice in deer (Odocoileus spp.) management because these estimates are used to determine population vital rates, as well as assess effects of hunting regulations and other management actions. However, there is longstanding recognition of potential biases in sex and age ratios that can arise from differences in deer behavior and sightability, or from methodological issues, such as using roads for sampling. Biologists often use roads for composition surveys because of convenience and roads are often considered to provide coverage of the sampling area and, consequently, unbiased estimates of sex and age ratios. We tested the long‐standing belief that low‐use roads through mule deer (O. hemionus) winter range provided an unbiased sampling scheme by designing and conducting a random‐route survey in conjunction with the road survey through the same winter range in Round Valley, California, USA, during 2015 and 2016. In addition, we conducted a helicopter survey of the same area in 2016. We found adult male:adult female (buck:doe) ratios were 31–45% greater from the random‐route survey compared with the road survey. There was no difference in buck:doe ratios between road and helicopter surveys, but the random‐route survey had 55% greater buck:doe ratios than the helicopter survey. The helicopter survey also had 2.2–4.7 times greater proportions of unclassified bucks than the road or random‐route surveys. There were no differences in fawn:doe ratios among the 3 survey methods. We conducted additional spatial analyses to determine if the buck:doe ratio was greater along random‐routes because bucks were avoiding roads or because the random‐route survey covered different areas. We found that bucks were not avoiding roads; rather, the roads did not adequately cover the winter range area. There were differences between all 3 methods, but our main message is that the assumption that roads provide adequate coverage of winter range and unbiased estimates of population composition should be evaluated. To evaluate that assumption, we recommend conducting ≥1 survey using random routes and comparing composition estimates with road surveys. Further, if information on buck antler‐class is required for management decisions, a ground survey is preferable to a helicopter survey. © 2020 The Wildlife Society.

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Integrated population models facilitate ecological understanding and improved management decisions

Cited by 83 publications

References 62 publications

Annual survival in female white‐winged scoters and lesser scaup

Annual survival in female white‐winged scoters and lesser scaup

Efficient use of harvest data: An integrated population model for exploited animal populations

Are Composition Surveys for Mule Deer Along Roads or From Helicopters Biased? Lessons from the Field

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