Integrated risk analysis of water-energy nexus systems based on systems dynamics, orthogonal design and copula analysis

Cai, Yanpeng; Cai, Jianying; Xu, Linyu; Tan, Qian; Qiao, Xu

doi:10.1016/j.rser.2018.10.001

Cited by 91 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…In certain cases, a single model cannot fully delineate the complicated eco-hydrologic and biogeochemical processes within a watershed spatially composed of river, creek, reservoir, etc. Therefore, many modelers have realized that a coupled modeling approach in aquatic environment can improve the simulation of hydrodynamics and movement of pollutants [12,21,22].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Coupled Modeling Approach for Water Management in a River–Reservoir System

Zhang

Huang

Zhou

et al. 2019

IJERPH

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A coupled model is an effective tool to understand the nutrient fate associated with hydrodynamic and ecosystem processes and thereby developing a water resource management strategy. This paper presents a coupled modeling approach that consists of a watershed model and a hydrodynamic model to evaluate the nutrient fate in a river–reservoir system. The results obtained from the model showed a good agreement with field observations. The results revealed that the Shuikou reservoir (Fuzhou, China)exhibited complicated hydrodynamic characteristics, which may induce the pattern of nutrient export. Reservoirs can greatly lower water quality as a result of decreasing water movement. Three scenarios were analyzed for water management. The NH3-N (Ammonia Nitrogen) decreased sharply in the outlet of Shuikou reservoir after NH3-N level in its tributary was reduced. After removing the farming cages, the water quality of the outlet of Shuikou reservoir was improved significantly. The DO (Dissolved Oxygen) had increased by 3%–10%, NH3-N had reduced by 5%–17%, and TP (Total Phosphorus) had reduced by 6%–21%. This study demonstrates that the proposed coupled modeling approach can effectively characterize waterway risks for water management in such a river–reservoir system.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Coupled Modeling Approach for Water Management in a River–Reservoir System

Zhang

Huang

Zhou

et al. 2019

IJERPH

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“…Increasingly more renewable energy sources, such as wind power, are connected to the operation system, which effectively improves energy and environmental problems. As the main form of energy bearing in the future, the integrated energy system (IES) of a park combines cold, hot, steam, and other kinds of energy, which can realize clean and efficient energy consumption in the production, transportation, storage, and consumption links [1]. By the end of 2019, China's total annual wind power generation reached 629.5 billion kWh, accounting for 8.6% of the total power generation-an increase of 0.8% year-on-year [2].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimal Planning Design of a District-Level Integrated Energy System Considering the Impacts of Multi-Dimensional Uncertainties: A Multi-Objective Interval Optimization Method

et al. 2021

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Improving the utilization efficiency of renewable energy sources (RES) is an important task for the development of an integrated energy system (IES). To address this challenge, this paper proposes a novel multi-objective interval optimization framework for the energy hub (EH) planning problem from the perspective of the source load synergy, while considering the impacts of both supply-and demand-side uncertainties. For this aim, based on an in-depth analysis of the adjustable characteristics of various loads in EH and their effect on RES absorption, an interval model is first established to describe the responsiveness of users' load demand to real-time energy price variations and its associated uncertainties. In view of the natural contradiction between the system's economic and environmental benefits, a multi-objective interval optimization model for the EH planning problem is developed, wherein the minimization of the system's economic costs and the maximization of the RES utilization rate are considered as the dual objectives to be optimized simultaneously. Moreover, this study takes into account the uncertainties of RES availability and demand-side behaviors by using interval numbers and properly considering their impacts in the context of long-term planning. According to the features of the proposed model, the interval order relation and possible degree method are jointly used to transform the model into a deterministic optimization problem first, and then an improved non-dominant sorting genetic algorithm is used to derive the optimal solution to the problem. The results show that the proposed method can effectively improve the economy of EH and the utilization efficiency of RES and flexibly meet different planning requirements, giving better engineering practicability.INDEX TERMS demand-side management, improved non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm, multiobjective interval optimization model, source load synergy, uncertainty analysis

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“…Especially, the research on the security assessment of WEFN is relatively scarce. At present, the commonly assessment approaches applied include Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) (Vivoda 2010), Fuzzy Comprehensive Assessment (FCA) (Qi et al 2013), Principal Component Analysis (PCA) (Ozturk 2015), Comprehensive Index (CI) (Mohammadpour 2019), and System Dynamics (SD) (Cai et al 2019). Both AHP and FCA need to be scored by experts in the evaluation process, which is more subjective.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Security Assessment Using SPA-VFS and Obstacle Factors Diagnosis of Water-Energy-Food Nexus Based on A PSR Framework

Chen

Ding

2021

Preprint

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In the context of population growth and increasingly scarce resources, the sustainability of water-energy-food nexus (WEFN) has been considered as a major global challenge. This study presented the evaluation index system of WEFN security based on the pressure-state-response (PSR) model. The set pair analysis and variable fuzzy sets (SPA-VFS) were supplied to evaluate WEFN security, which analyzed the situation and obstacles of WEFN security in Northwest China from 2008 to 2017. The results showed that, (1) In the WEFN, the pressure-subsystem in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia was in a critical safe level; in the state-subsystem, the security level of Shaanxi was the best and the response-subsystem in Inner Mongolia and Gansu is in an unsafe level; (2) Over the years, the safety level of WEFN in the five provinces of Northwest China had obvious spatio-temporal characteristics, which was always between critical safety and unsafety, but the overall trend was positive. (3) The results of obstacle degree of three subsystems were compared as follows: pressure-subsystem state-subsystem response-subsystem. And, their obstacle factors were almost all related to water. The key to improving WEFN security in Northwest China in the future is to deal with the serious mismatch between water resources and energy resources.

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Integrated risk analysis of water-energy nexus systems based on systems dynamics, orthogonal design and copula analysis

Cited by 91 publications

References 35 publications

A Coupled Modeling Approach for Water Management in a River–Reservoir System

A Coupled Modeling Approach for Water Management in a River–Reservoir System

Optimal Planning Design of a District-Level Integrated Energy System Considering the Impacts of Multi-Dimensional Uncertainties: A Multi-Objective Interval Optimization Method

Security Assessment Using SPA-VFS and Obstacle Factors Diagnosis of Water-Energy-Food Nexus Based on A PSR Framework

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