Integrated Risk and Uncertainty Assessment of Climate Change Response Policies

Kunreuther, Howard; Gupta, Shreekant; Bosetti, Valentina; Cooke, Roger M.; Ha-Duong, Minh; Held, Hermann; Llanes-Regueiro, Juan; Patt, Anthony; Shittu, Ekundayo; Weber, Elke U.; Böttcher, Hannes; Cullen, Heidi; Jasanoff, Sheila; Linnerooth, Joanne; Heller, Carol

doi:10.1017/cbo9781107415416.008

Cited by 307 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 322 publications

(265 reference statements)

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“…In this study, air temperature showed a strong trend of 0.38°C per decade, which was higher than the global average level (Pachauri et al 2014). Combined with the positive trend in PRE, the regional climate change can be characterized as warming and wetting (Kuang and Jiao 2016).…”

Section: Characteristics Of Climate Change and Vegetation Growthmentioning

confidence: 55%

The spatial-temporal distributions of controlling factors on vegetation growth in Tibet Autonomous Region, Southwestern China

You

Arain

Wang

et al. 2019

Environ. Res. Commun.

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Due to cold and arid climate of Tibet Autonomous Region, vegetation growth is considered to be controlled by both moisture availability and warmth. In order to reveal the patterns of regional climate change and the mechanisms of climate-vegetation interactions, long term (1982-2013) datasets of climate variables and vegetation activities were collected from Climatic Research Unit (CRU) and Global Inventory Monitoring and Modeling System (GIMMS). Principal regression analysis and (partial) correlation analysis were conducted to reveal the contributions of controlling factors on vegetation growth. Study results showed that (1) Annual mean air temperature (TMP) had increased by 0.38°C per decade (P=0.00) and annual precipitation (PRE) had increased by 17.25 mm per decade (P=0.15). A significant change point around the year 1997/1998 was detected by Mann-Whitney-Pettit test, coinciding with the occurrence of El Niño event.(2) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) had an insignificant positive trend. Spatially, pixels of high NDVI values, great NDVI trends and high inter-annual deviations are distributed in the densely vegetated eastern part. Principal regression analysis revealed that, alpine grassland (northern and western part) is mostly controlled by temperature, steppe meadow (middle and southern part) is mostly controlled by precipitation, and shrub/mixed needle leaved and broad leaved forest (eastern part) is mostly controlled by cloud coverage. (3) Partial correlation analyses showed that regions with high sensitivity to precipitation nearly overlapped with regions of high sensitivity to minimum temperature. And the high importance of cold index (CDI, accumulated negative difference between TMP and 5°C) revealed in this study implied the effects of regional glacial melting and permafrost degradation. We concluded that the regional climate change can be characterized as warming and wetting. Different regions and vegetation types in Tibet Autonomous Region demonstrated different driving climate factors and climate-vegetation relationships.

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Section: Characteristics Of Climate Change and Vegetation Growthmentioning

confidence: 55%

The spatial-temporal distributions of controlling factors on vegetation growth in Tibet Autonomous Region, Southwestern China

You

Arain

Wang

et al. 2019

Environ. Res. Commun.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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Trends in mesospheric ice layers in the Northern Hemisphere during 1961–2013

Berger

Lübken

2015

JGR Atmospheres

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The MIMAS ice model is used to study the trend behavior of polar mesospheric clouds (PMCs) responding to long‐term changes in mesospheric temperatures at northern high latitudes for the summer period 1961–2013. This paper presents long‐term PMC variations in terms of ice water content (IWC) at northern high latitudes for monthly July averages that are compared to solar backscatter ultraviolet (SBUV) data available in the period 1979–2013. In general, good agreement is found between long‐term PMC variations from the model and from satellite observations. For example, both model and SBUV data show an increase in ice water content (IWC > 40 g km−2) in the latitude band 74°–82°N with significant IWC trends of 2.8 ± 2.1 g km−2/dec and 2.4 ± 2.0 g km−2/dec, respectively. Modeled trends in IWC are latitudinally dependent. For the entire period 1961–2013 no trend exists at midlatitudes (50°–60°N) but increases poleward to highly significant values of 4.4 ± 0.9 g km−2/dec in the latitude band 74°–82°N. The analysis of trends in extreme PMC events (IWC > 300 g km−2) shows a 23%/dec increase in occurrence frequency at 74°–82°N which is by far the largest trend of all PMC parameters. We discuss the statistical properties of PMC following an exponential distribution. We derive an analytic solution of ice growth from microphysics that allows calculation of ice particle radius as a function of background conditions. As a result, the thermal conditions near 83 km height, with a cooling of −0.58 ± 0.32 K/dec, mainly determine trends in IWC whereas cooling at lower heights, induced by stratospheric ozone, controls to a large extent the long‐term behavior of PMC altitudes.

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Estimating methane gas production in peat soils of the Florida Everglades using hydrogeophysical methods

Wright

Comas

2016

JGR Biogeosciences

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The spatial and temporal variability in production and release of greenhouse gases (such as methane) in peat soils remains uncertain, particularly for low-latitude peatlands like the Everglades. Ground penetrating radar (GPR) is a hydrogeophysical tool that has been successfully used in the last decade to noninvasively investigate carbon dynamics in peat soils; however, application in subtropical systems is almost non-existent. This study is based on four field sites in the Florida Everglades, where changes in gas content within the soil are monitored using time-lapse GPR measurements and gas releases are monitored using gas traps. A weekly methane gas production rate is estimated using a mass balance approach, considering gas content estimated from GPR, gas release from gas traps and incorporating rates of diffusion, and methanotrophic consumption from previous studies. Resulting production rates range between 0.02 and 0.47 g CH 4 m À2 d À1 , falling within the range reported in literature. This study shows the potential of combining GPR with gas traps to monitor gas dynamics in peat soils of the Everglades and estimate methane gas production. We also show the enhanced ability of certain peat soils to store gas when compared to others, suggesting that physical properties control biogenic gas storage in the Everglades peat soils. Better understanding biogenic methane gas dynamics in peat soils has implications regarding the role of wetlands in the global carbon cycle, particularly under a climate change scenario.

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Integrated Risk and Uncertainty Assessment of Climate Change Response Policies

Abstract: The section concludes by examining the roles that risk and uncertainty play in support of or opposition to climate policies.

Cited by 307 publications

References 322 publications

The spatial-temporal distributions of controlling factors on vegetation growth in Tibet Autonomous Region, Southwestern China

The spatial-temporal distributions of controlling factors on vegetation growth in Tibet Autonomous Region, Southwestern China

Trends in mesospheric ice layers in the Northern Hemisphere during 1961–2013

Estimating methane gas production in peat soils of the Florida Everglades using hydrogeophysical methods

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