Abstract. Currently, climate change is a major concern around the
world, especially because of the uncertainty associated with its possible
consequences for society. Among them, fluvial alterations can be highlighted
in basins whose flows depend on groundwater discharges and snowmelt. This is
the case of the headwaters of the Tagus River basin, whose water resources,
besides being essential for water uses within this basin, are susceptible to
being transferred to the Segura River basin (both basins are in the Iberian
Peninsula). This work studies the possible effects that the latest climate
change scenarios may have on this transfer, one of the most important ones in
southern Europe. In the first place, the possible alterations of the water
cycle of the donor basin were estimated. To do this, a hydrological model was
calibrated. Then, with this model, three climatic scenarios were simulated,
one without climate change and two projections under climate change
(Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (RCP 4.5) and 8.5 (RCP 8.5)). The
results of these three hydrological modelling scenarios were used to
determine the possible flows that could be transferred from the Tagus River
basin to the Segura River basin, by simulating the water resource
exploitation system of the Tagus headwaters. The calibrated hydrological
model predicts, for the simulated climate change scenarios, important
reductions in the snowfalls and snow covers, the recharge of aquifers, and
the available water resources. So, the headwaters of the Tagus River basin
would lose part of its natural capacity for regulation. These changes in the
water cycle for the climate change scenarios used would imply a reduction of
around 70 %–79 % in the possible flows that could be transferred to the
Segura basin, with respect to a scenario without climate change. The loss of
water resources for the Segura River basin would mean, if no alternative
measures were taken, an economic loss of EUR 380–425 million per year, due
principally to decreased agricultural production.