Integrating climate change and human impacts into marine spatial planning: A case study of threatened starfish species in Brazil

Abstract

Network expansion of marine protected areas in a changing world is a difficult task for conservation planners. Brazil experiences a combination of low and uneven protection of marine environmets, increasing anthropogenic pressures, climate change, and gaps in information regarding the geographical distribution of many species (Wallacean shortfall). Here, we addressed these issues and present a strategy for identifying priority marine areas for conservation in Brazil that would contribute to increasing species representation and achievement of conservation targets. Within this strategy, we accounted for (i) species range shifts due to climate change and their influence on species distribution, (ii) the lack of species geographical distribution data, and (iii) anthropic pressures on oceans. First, we built ecological niche models (ENMs) for 12 threatened starfish species in both present and future (2100) times using Maxent. We also quantified and mapped species range shifts. Second, we developed three conservation spatial solutions and compared the 10% top-ranked areas. The results showed that ENMs had a good performance in representing the distribution of species, even those that had few occurrence records. Our models forecasted a significant range expansion for the majority of species (10 out 12) by 2100. We found that the priority sites covering the top-ranked 10% in the study area identified in ours conservation spatial solutions would protect between 10.41% and 15.88%, on average, of suitable areas for the starfish species. Our results indicated priority sites for conservation less affected by anthropic pressures (~2%) when data on human impacts on oceans were incorporated into the spatial prioritization process. We identified a network of priority marine sites for conservation that minimized human influence and considered the effects of climate change on species distribution. We used threatened starfish species as a case study for illustrating our approach; however, such an approach could be applied to any taxonomic group, which supports the development of more effective conservation actions that represent biodiversity under such threats.

Contextualizing ecological performance: Rethinking monitoring in marine protected areas

“…However, human pressure measurements made during MPA planning can also inform where conservation areas should be delineated, whether the intent is to manage or avoid high‐pressure areas (e.g. Patrizzi & Dobrovolski, 2018).…”

Incorporating climate change adaptation into marine protected area planning

“…Protecting species with crucial ecosystem roles, or of ecological concern, is an important biodiversity conservation goal in the face of climate change (Brock et al, 2012). When climate change was incorporated into MPA design with only species‐based approaches (Appendix S2) these studies generally focused on protecting keystone species (Patrizzi & Dobrovolski, 2018) or used species‐specific trait‐based vulnerability to warming, such as coral reef thermal stress regimes (Magris, Heron, & Pressey, 2015; Mumby et al, 2011). The thermal stress regimes each denote different levels of projected coral stress, across various magnitudes of climate change exposure, to define a range of areas to protect across different climate futures.…”

“…With more knowledge, a species distribution model (SDM) can be used to explicitly test for future changes in habitat suitability (Foden et al, 2019). While SDMs were the most commonly used tool to incorporate climate change in a global review of spatial prioritization techniques (Jones et al, 2016) we found that only one study (Patrizzi & Dobrovolski, 2018) used SDMs to test for species distribution shifts with climate change within the context of MPA design (Figure 3a,b; Appendix S2). This study built SDMs for 17 threatened starfish species and their predicted current and future distributions were used to spatially prioritize areas for protection (Patrizzi & Dobrovolski, 2018).…”

“…While SDMs were the most commonly used tool to incorporate climate change in a global review of spatial prioritization techniques (Jones et al, 2016) we found that only one study (Patrizzi & Dobrovolski, 2018) used SDMs to test for species distribution shifts with climate change within the context of MPA design (Figure 3a,b; Appendix S2). This study built SDMs for 17 threatened starfish species and their predicted current and future distributions were used to spatially prioritize areas for protection (Patrizzi & Dobrovolski, 2018). Other studies have used SDMs to examine climate change vulnerability within existing MPAs and their management (e.g., Jones et al, 2013).…”

A blueprint for securing Brazil's marine biodiversity and supporting the achievement of global conservation goals

“…Almada & Bernardino, 2017; Magris et al., 2016) or taxonomic groups (e.g. Patrizzi & Dobrovolski, 2018; Vilar et al., 2020), or performed regional‐scale planning exercises (e.g. Duarte de Paula Costa et al., 2018; Magris et al., 2015).…”