Integrating climate change vulnerability assessments from species distribution models and trait-based approaches

Willis, Stephen G.; Foden, Wendy; Baker, D. James; Belle, Elise M. S.; Burgess, Neil D.; Carr, Jamie; Doswald, Nathalie; García, Raquel; Hartley, Andrew James; Hof, Christian; Newbold, Tim; Rahbek, Carsten; Smith, Robert J.; Visconti, Piero; Young, Bruce E.; Butchart, Stuart H. M.

doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2015.05.001

Cited by 82 publications

(76 citation statements)

References 77 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…In another vein, the test of the current reserve network is effective to face climate change is important to directing efforts and choose actions to the protected area according to the predicted threat (Ferro, Lemes, Melo, & Loyola, ). At the species level, the integration of our findings with analysis of vulnerability based on species traits can improve the prediction of species vulnerability (Willis et al., ). The integration of our prediction with the species’ traits can reveal interactions that can improve or reduce the species threat, as the capacity of flight that can facilitate or prevent the migration to gained areas in the future (e.g.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change likely to reduce orchid bee abundance even in climatic suitable sites

Faleiro

Loyola

2018

Global Change Biology

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Studies have tested whether model predictions based on species' occurrence can predict the spatial pattern of population abundance. The relationship between predicted environmental suitability and population abundance varies in shape, strength and predictive power. However, little attention has been paid to the congruence in predictions of different models fed with occurrence or abundance data, in particular when comparing metrics of climate change impact. Here, we used the ecological niche modeling fit with presence-absence and abundance data of orchid bees to predict the effect of climate change on species and assembly level distribution patterns. In addition, we assessed whether predictions of presence-absence models can be used as a proxy to abundance patterns. We obtained georeferenced abundance data of orchid bees (Hymenoptera: Apidae: Euglossina) in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. Sampling method consisted in attracting male orchid bees to baits of at least five different aromatic compounds and collecting the individuals with entomological nets or bait traps. We limited abundance data to those obtained by similar standard sampling protocol to avoid bias in abundance estimation. We used boosted regression trees to model ecological niches and project them into six climate models and two Representative Concentration Pathways. We found that models based on species occurrences worked as a proxy for changes in population abundance when the output of the models were continuous; results were very different when outputs were discretized to binary predictions. We found an overall trend of diminishing abundance in the future, but a clear retention of climatically suitable sites too. Furthermore, geographic distance to gained climatic suitable areas can be very short, although it embraces great variation. Changes in species richness and turnover would be concentrated in western and southern Atlantic Forest. Our findings offer support to the ongoing debate of suitability-abundance models and can be used to support spatial conservation prioritization schemes and species triage in Atlantic Forest.

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change likely to reduce orchid bee abundance even in climatic suitable sites

Faleiro

Loyola

2018

Global Change Biology

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Most current assessments of its potential impacts are focused either on changes in the geographical extent of species' climate space or changes in the exposure of areas to different dimensions of climate change. Yet, models focused on changes in the species' distribution fail to explicitly reflect the broad range of climate-induced stress affecting populations' ecology and species' physiology (Foden et al, 2013;Willis et al, 2015). Studies rarely appreciate the quantifications of areas exposed to the different dimensions of climate change in combination, despite their different implications for biodiversity (Garcia et al, 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

“…And how will it affect their adaptive capacity, i.e. the species' inability to avoid the harmful impacts of climate change through dispersal or micro-evolutionary change (Foden et al, 2013;Moritz and Agudo, 2013;Willis et al, 2015). Among other biological traits correlated with species extinction risk, those related with sensitivity include thermoregulation, activity, habitat specialisation, reproduction, and ecological plasticity.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Desert-adapted species are vulnerable to climate change: Insights from the warmest region on Earth

Vale

Brito

2015

Global Ecology and Conservation

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

“…Finally, exploring inconsistencies between model projections and known natural history characteristics of the target may identify missing drivers or interactions, particularly processes that operate at spatial or temporal scales too fine to be captured by broad‐scale models (Willis et al . ).…”

Section: Integrating Multiple Lines Of Evidencementioning

confidence: 97%

Future climate vulnerability – evaluating multiple lines of evidence

Michalak

Withey

Lawler

et al. 2017

Frontiers in Ecol & Environ

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Climate change will markedly alter the structure and function of ecosystems, with important implications for land management. Yet scientists’ ability to predict future ecological conditions is hampered by uncertainty in both climate projections and ecological responses to climate change. More data are now available – from small‐scale experimental results to continental vegetation model projections – to improve understanding of climate vulnerability. Integrating these resources can strengthen vulnerability assessments but managers may become skeptical of the assessment process when information sources generate conflicting outcomes. We discuss practical approaches to integrating multiple lines of evidence in vulnerability assessments, and illustrate these approaches using three case studies: Oregon white oak in the Willamette Valley, whitebark pine in south‐central Idaho, and sagebrush steppe on the Columbia Plateau. These cases demonstrate that although weaving together multiple lines of evidence can be challenging, unique insights can emerge even when there is divergence in projected changes.

show abstract

Integrating climate change vulnerability assessments from species distribution models and trait-based approaches

Cited by 82 publications

References 77 publications

Climate change likely to reduce orchid bee abundance even in climatic suitable sites

Climate change likely to reduce orchid bee abundance even in climatic suitable sites

Desert-adapted species are vulnerable to climate change: Insights from the warmest region on Earth

Future climate vulnerability – evaluating multiple lines of evidence

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About