Integrating climate model projections into environmental risk assessment: A probabilistic modeling approach

Abstract

The Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (SETAC) convened a Pellston workshop in 2022 to examine how information on climate change could be better incorporated into the ecological risk assessment (ERA) process for chemicals as well as other environmental stressors. A major impetus for this workshop is that climate change can affect components of ecological risks in multiple direct and indirect ways, including the use patterns and environmental exposure pathways of chemical stressors such as pesticides, the toxicity of chemicals in receiving environments, and the vulnerability of species of concern related to habitat quality and use. This paper explores a modeling approach for integrating climate model projections into the assessment of near‐ and long‐term ecological risks, developed in collaboration with climate scientists. State‐of‐the‐art global climate modeling and downscaling techniques may enable climate projections at scales appropriate for the study area. It is, however, also important to realize the limitations of individual global climate models and make use of climate model ensembles represented by statistical properties. Here, we present a probabilistic modeling approach aiming to combine projected climatic variables as well as the associated uncertainties from climate model ensembles in conjunction with ERA pathways. We draw upon three examples of ERA that utilized Bayesian networks for this purpose and that also represent methodological advancements for better prediction of future risks to ecosystems. We envision that the modeling approach developed from this international collaboration will contribute to better assessment and management of risks from chemical stressors in a changing climate.

Incorporating climate change model projections into ecological risk assessments to help inform risk management and adaptation strategies: Synthesis of a SETAC Pellston Workshop®

“…The online meetings in this preparatory phase also addressed interdisciplinary topics such as relevant concepts and terminology (listed in Moe et al [2023]), definitions and interpretation of risk, conceptual models, quantitative modeling methods, and communication with stakeholders. For example, participants presented approaches to risk analysis from the fields of climate modeling, climate policy, hydrology, and engineering, which could contribute to the advancement of chemical risk analysis.…”

“…Previous efforts related to climate change by the Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (SETAC) include a SETAC Pellston Workshop ® in 2011, which examined the influence of climate change on the foundation and practice of environmental toxicology and chemistry (Balbus et al, 2013;Gouin et al, 2013;Hooper et al, 2013;Landis et al, 2013;Moe et al, 2013;Stahl et al, 2013). While since the 2011 workshop there has been increased focus on the interaction of climate change with chemicals (Landis et al, 2014;Stahl et al, 2017;Wenning et al, 2010), in our view, it has not yet been sufficiently incorporated into risk assessment (Moe et al, 2023) and management (Cains et al, 2023).…”

“…The purpose of this introductory paper is to present the background, objectives, organization, and main outcomes of the workshop. The following sections will present (1) the workshop objectives and organization; (2) the main outcomes from five papers addressing risk assessment methodology (Moe et al, 2023), case studies (Landis et al, 2023;Mentzel et al, 2023;Oldenkamp et al, 2023), and risk management (Cains et al, 2023); and (3) conclusions based on the scientific papers and on the workshop objectives.…”

Environmental management cycles for chemicals and climate change, EMC4: A new conceptual framework contextualizing climate and chemical risk assessment and management

“…This article is part of a series (Landis et al, 2023;Mentzel et al, 2023;Moe et al, 2023;Oldenkamp et al, 2023;Stahl et al, 2023) produced at a Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry Pellston ® workshop in June 2022. The workshop goal and, more specifically, this article was to address the concern that potential environmental and ecological impacts associated with a changing climate were not being considered in national or international chemicals management processes.…”

“…al., 2023;Moe et al, 2023;Oldenkamp et al, 2023;Stahl et al, 2023), our task was to Three case studies (e.g., global, regional, local) provide example applications of these questions. The answers to each question are not meant to be exhaustive but illustrative.…”