Integrating Climate Science, Monitoring, and Management in the Rio de la Plata Estuarine Front (Uruguay)

Nagy, Gustavo J.; Munoz, Nathalie Munoz; Verocai, José E.; Bidegain, Mario; Santos, Bernardo de los; Seijo, Leonardo; García, Juan Martín; Feola, Gabriella; Brena, Beatríz M.; Risso, Jimena

doi:10.1007/978-3-319-04489-7_6

Cited by 9 publications

(6 citation statements)

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“…This is consistent with previous findings that predicted increased rainfall in Uruguay [29,87] for 2030 and 2050 under RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 [58]. Our simulation projected higher temperatures for all the future scenarios and periods with moderate variations for RCP 2.6 scenarios and particularly high temperatures for RCP 4.5 (FF) and 8.5 (MF-FF) (Figure 4), coinciding with previously projected trends for Uruguay [29,58,87]. The forecasted warming based on the annual average of both climate models used for the RCP 4.5 scenario shows an increasing trend across the considered periods, with extreme values of +1.98 • C for the RCP 4.5-FF (CanESM2) and +2.23 • C for the RCP 4.5-FF (HadGem2-ES).…”

Section: Climate Change Impacts On Rainfall and Temperaturesupporting

confidence: 94%

“…Based on the CanESM2 and HadGem2-ES models, the Laguna del Sauce catchment is projected to experience a wetting trend except for in spring, where we can see a marked decrease in precipitation. This is consistent with previous findings that predicted increased rainfall in Uruguay [29,87] for 2030 and 2050 under RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 [58]. Our simulation projected higher temperatures for all the future scenarios and periods with moderate variations for RCP 2.6 scenarios and particularly high temperatures for RCP 4.5 (FF) and 8.5 (MF-FF) (Figure 4), coinciding with previously projected trends for Uruguay [29,58,87].…”

Section: Climate Change Impacts On Rainfall and Temperaturesupporting

confidence: 92%

“…We considered the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5) scenarios for future climate projection by the IPCC based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) [8]. These pathways were developed based on factors such as population growth, socio-economic development and greenhouse gas emissions [57,58]. We based our study on 2 of the CMIP5 Global Climate Models (GCMs) that best fit the observed climate and have already been used and tested for the elaboration of future regionalized climate scenarios for Uruguay [59].…”

Section: Climate Change Projectionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Analysing the Impact of Climate Change on Hydrological Ecosystem Services in Laguna del Sauce (Uruguay) Using the SWAT Model and Remote Sensing Data

Aznarez

Jimeno‐Sáez²,

López-Ballesteros³

et al. 2021

Remote Sensing

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Assessing how climate change will affect hydrological ecosystem services (HES) provision is necessary for long-term planning and requires local comprehensive climate information. In this study, we used SWAT to evaluate the impacts on four HES, natural hazard protection, erosion control regulation and water supply and flow regulation for the Laguna del Sauce catchment in Uruguay. We used downscaled CMIP-5 global climate models for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 projections. We calibrated and validated our SWAT model for the periods 2005–2009 and 2010–2013 based on remote sensed ET data. Monthly NSE and R2 values for calibration and validation were 0.74, 0.64 and 0.79, 0.84, respectively. Our results suggest that climate change will likely negatively affect the water resources of the Laguna del Sauce catchment, especially in the RCP 8.5 scenario. In all RCP scenarios, the catchment is likely to experience a wetting trend, higher temperatures, seasonality shifts and an increase in extreme precipitation events, particularly in frequency and magnitude. This will likely affect water quality provision through runoff and sediment yield inputs, reducing the erosion control HES and likely aggravating eutrophication. Although the amount of water will increase, changes to the hydrological cycle might jeopardize the stability of freshwater supplies and HES on which many people in the south-eastern region of Uruguay depend. Despite streamflow monitoring capacities need to be enhanced to reduce the uncertainty of model results, our findings provide valuable insights for water resources planning in the study area. Hence, water management and monitoring capacities need to be enhanced to reduce the potential negative climate change impacts on HES. The methodological approach presented here, based on satellite ET data can be replicated and adapted to any other place in the world since we employed open-access software and remote sensing data for all the phases of hydrological modelling and HES provision assessment.

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Section: Climate Change Impacts On Rainfall and Temperaturesupporting

confidence: 94%

Section: Climate Change Impacts On Rainfall and Temperaturesupporting

confidence: 92%

Section: Climate Change Projectionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Analysing the Impact of Climate Change on Hydrological Ecosystem Services in Laguna del Sauce (Uruguay) Using the SWAT Model and Remote Sensing Data

Aznarez

Jimeno‐Sáez²,

López-Ballesteros³

et al. 2021

Remote Sensing

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“…Elsewhere, both long and short-term migrations are common responses for coping with seasonality and extreme events such as ENSO ( Similar ndings to those presented here have been observed for other shing communities. For example, a study by Nagy et al (2009) showed that shermen in the Rio de la Plata, South America used a wide range of coping strategies ranging from reactive to planned private strategies, such as long-term migration to cope with declining sh catches attributed to ENSO events. In Patos Lagoon, Brazil, livelihood diversi cation amongst shermen during bad seasons is a major adaptation response by small-scale shermen (Kalikoski et al 2010).…”

Section: Coping and Adaptation In The Small-scale Sheries Sectormentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For example, in the Pampas belt of Argentina, found that inadequate awareness regarding rainfall and precipitation trends, attributed to the slow nature of seasonal and decadal variability, acted as a barrier for the farmers to adapt. With regard to shing, a study by Nagy et al (2009) showed that shermen migration (seasonal relocation of shing sites and spontaneous) as a coping strategy for El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events and other trends is constrained by climate uncertainty. Using the sustainable livelihoods framework (SLF), Osman-Elasha et al ( 2009) identi ed various barriers that constrain adaptation in the north Kordofan state of South Sudan.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Coping with and adapting to climate and non-climate stressors within the small-scale farming, fishing and seaweed growing sectors, Zanzibar

2023

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The Eastern African region is witnessing changes in climate conditions and rising sea levels due to the in uences of global warming interacting with weather phenomenon such as El Nino and La Nina. These trends, as well as more intense extreme weather events, highlight the urgent need for appropriate adaptation responses at both the national and local level. This is especially the case for the numerous small islands of the region that are particularly vulnerable to climate change. This paper reports on a study that examined coping and adaptation responses to climate and non-climate stressors amongst coastal communities on two Zanzibar islands (Pemba and Unguja) in Tanzania. The study focused on three of the primary livelihood activities on the islands, namely, seaweed growing, shing, and crop and livestock farming. Using mainly survey data, we explored the responses of farmers, shermen, and seaweed growers to multiple shocks and stressors. We further investigated responses that were discontinued for various reasons, as well as any barriers to adaptation encountered by these communities. We found that coastal communities in both Kiuyu Mbuyuni, Pemba and Matemwe, Unguja face a range of interrelated shocks and stressors linked to their livelihood activities, some of which they were able to respond to primarily through coping strategies. However, their attempts to adapt in the longer term as well as to venture outside their traditional activities were constrained by several barriers. Some of these barriers operate beyond the individual and community capability to overcome, whilst others -like social and cultural barriers -can be addressed at the local level but need a concerted effort and political will. We draw the ndings together into a conceptual framework to help unpack the implications these hold for coastal communities on the two islands. We then suggest ways to build resilience in local livelihoods and overcome barriers to climate change adaptation in the future.

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Introducing Hydro-Climatic Extremes and Human Impacts in Bolivia, Paraguay and Uruguay

Aparicio-Effen¹,

Arana²,

Aparicio³

et al. 2016

Climate Change Management

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Integrating Climate Science, Monitoring, and Management in the Rio de la Plata Estuarine Front (Uruguay)

Cited by 9 publications

References 1 publication

Analysing the Impact of Climate Change on Hydrological Ecosystem Services in Laguna del Sauce (Uruguay) Using the SWAT Model and Remote Sensing Data

Analysing the Impact of Climate Change on Hydrological Ecosystem Services in Laguna del Sauce (Uruguay) Using the SWAT Model and Remote Sensing Data

Coping with and adapting to climate and non-climate stressors within the small-scale farming, fishing and seaweed growing sectors, Zanzibar

Introducing Hydro-Climatic Extremes and Human Impacts in Bolivia, Paraguay and Uruguay

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