Integrating Data on Ethnicity, Geography, and Conflict

Vogt, Manuel; Bormann, Nils-Christian; Rüegger, Seraina; Cederman, Lars‐Erik; Hunziker, Philipp; Girardin, Luc

doi:10.1177/0022002715591215

Cited by 498 publications

(420 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…Moreover, the Ethnic Power Relations (EPR) data do not report data for smaller countries with a population below 500,000 in 1990 (Vogt et al, 2015(Vogt et al, , 1330, including some that experience civil war such as Comoros and Suriname.…”

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confidence: 99%

The shape of things to come? Expanding the inequality and grievance model for civil war forecasts with event data

Chiba

Gleditsch

2017

Journal of Peace Research

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We examine if dynamic information from event data can help improve on a model attempting to forecast civil war using measures reflecting plausible motivation and grievances.Buhaug, Cederman and Gleditsch predict the risk of civil war using a horizontal inequality model with measures reflecting motivation and relevant group characteristics at the country level. The predictions from their model outperform in an out-of-sample forecast conventional country-level models of civil war, emphasizing vertical inequality and country characteristics.However, most grievance measures change little over time. We surmise that a model reflecting potential motivation for conflict can be improved with more dynamic information on mobilization and the behavior of actors. Our conjecture receives some support in the empirical analysis, where we consider both conflict onset and termination over territorial and governmental incompatibilities in the Uppsala/PRIO Armed Conflict Data, and find some evidence that event data can help improve forecasts. Moreover, models with the original grievance measures do better than purely event based models, supporting our claim that both structure and event based components can add value to conflict prediction models. However, the contribution of events to improving predictive power is modest and not entirely consistent, and some types of conflict events seem easier to forecast than others.2

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confidence: 99%

The shape of things to come? Expanding the inequality and grievance model for civil war forecasts with event data

Chiba

Gleditsch

2017

Journal of Peace Research

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“…Given the 91 Specifically, the exact survey question is: "which ethnic group do you belong to?" 92 Cederman, Wimmer, and Min 2010;Vogt et al 2015. information that our survey offers and the data from the EPR, 93 we obtained the variable "size of the excluded population in a country" from the EPR data (in the year 2012). After having determined the mean value of this item in our sample (0.172), we dropped those countries that had excluded populations above that average value.…”

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confidence: 99%

The Determinants of Environmental Migrants' Conflict Perception

Koubi¹,

Böhmelt²,

Spilker³

et al. 2018

Int Org

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Migration is likely to be a key factor linking climate change and conflict. However, our understanding of the factors behind and consequences of migration is surprisingly limited. We take this shortcoming as a motivation for our research and study the relationship between environmental migration and conflict at the micro level. In particular, we focus on environmental migrants' conflict perceptions to shed new theoretical and empirical light on this debate. We contend that variation in migrants' conflict perception can be explained by the type of environmental event people experienced in their former home, i.e., gradual, long-term or sudden onset, short-term environmental changes. We examine and further develop this argument before quantitatively analyzing newly collected micro-level data on intra-state migration from five developing countries. The results emphasize that migrants who suffered from gradual, long-term environmental events in their former homes are more likely to perceive conflict in their new location than those having experienced sudden, short-term environmental events. These findings are therefore in line with our theoretical argument that environmental migrants who suffer to a large degree from environmentally induced grievances, are ultimately more likely to perceive conflict and challenges in their new homes.

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“…Our primary source of data is the Ethnic Power Relations (EPR) core dataset 2014 (Vogt et al, 2015). The dataset contains various characteristics of well-identified groups ("ethnicities") within countries for about 155 countries across the world at an annual level for the period 1946-2013.…”

Section: Epr Datasetmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The first version of the dataset was created as part of a research project between scholars at ETH Zurich and University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), which was then updated and released by Vogt et al (2015). The information about the attributes of groups, including their power status is coded by the researchers by taking inputs from about one hundred country experts.…”

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confidence: 99%

Group Size and Political Representation Under Alternate Electoral Systems

Chaturvedi

Das

2018

SSRN Journal

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We examine the effect of group size of minorities on their representation in national government under majoritarian (MR) and proportional (PR) electoral systems. We first establish a robust empirical regularity using an ethnicity-country level panel data comprising 438 ethno-country minority groups across 102 democracies spanning the period 1946-2013. We show that a minority group's population share has no relation with its absolute representation in the national executive under PR but has an inverted-U shaped relation under MR. The pattern is stable over time and robust to alternate specifications. The developmental outcomes for a group proxied using stable nightlight emissions in a group's settlement area follow the same pattern. We reproduce the main results by two separate identification strategies-(i) instrumenting colony's voting system by that of the primary colonial ruler and, (ii) comparing the same ethnicity across countries within a continent. We argue that existing theoretical framework with a two group set up is not able to explain this pattern. Our proposed model incorporates the spatial distribution of multiple minority groups in a probabilistic voting model and justifies these patterns as equilibrium behavior. The data further validate a critical assumption of the model and its additional comparative static results. Our work highlights that electoral systems can have important effects on power inequality across minorities, and consequently, their well-being.JEL Classification: D72, D78, H11

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Integrating Data on Ethnicity, Geography, and Conflict

Abstract: This paper introduces the new Family of Ethnic Power Relations (EPR) Datasets, version 2014, which

Cited by 498 publications

References 36 publications

The shape of things to come? Expanding the inequality and grievance model for civil war forecasts with event data

The shape of things to come? Expanding the inequality and grievance model for civil war forecasts with event data

The Determinants of Environmental Migrants' Conflict Perception

Group Size and Political Representation Under Alternate Electoral Systems

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