Integrating Evolution into Ecological Modelling: Accommodating Phenotypic Changes in Agent Based Models

Abstract

Evolutionary change is a characteristic of living organisms and forms one of the ways in which species adapt to changed conditions. However, most ecological models do not incorporate this ubiquitous phenomenon. We have developed a model that takes a ‘phenotypic gambit’ approach and focuses on changes in the frequency of phenotypes (which differ in timing of breeding and fecundity) within a population, using, as an example, seasonal breeding. Fitness per phenotype calculated as the individual’s contribution to population growth on an annual basis coincide with the population dynamics per phenotype. Simplified model variants were explored to examine whether the complexity included in the model is justified. Outputs from the spatially implicit model underestimated the number of individuals across all phenotypes. When no phenotype transitions are included (i.e. offspring always inherit their parent’s phenotype) numbers of all individuals are always underestimated. We conclude that by using a phenotypic gambit approach evolutionary dynamics can be incorporated into individual based models, and that all that is required is an understanding of the probability of offspring inheriting the parental phenotype.

Data-driven competitive facilitative tree interactions and their implications on nature-based solutions

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The effects of marine protected areas over time and species' dispersal potential: a quantitative conservation conflict attempt

“…However, in general there are several behavioural changes in fishers after establishing an MPA (e Costa et al, 2013). While it would be interesting to know whether landings attain the levels observed before the implementation of MPAs (convex curves for high dispersal distance) and how long this will take, other acting processes such as increased fishing pressure (García-Rubies et al, 2013) or phenotypic evolution (Diaz Pauli and Heino, 2014;Moustakas and Evans, 2013) also occur, thus long-term outputs are unlikely to be realistic. Thus, the model was only run long enough to discern some variability between species' dispersal abilities.…”

Host-parasite coevolution can promote the evolution of seed banking as a bet-hedging strategy

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