Integrating forest-based industry and forest resource modeling

Abstract

This paper introduces a modeling approach for the assessment of policy options within the forest-based bioeconomy. The feedback between the forestry dynamics model and the economic model of the global forest-based sector of the proposed framework is essential, not only for response analysis as to the development of forest resources and for a correct assessment of future harvesting potentials, but also for the assessment of the impact of different management regimes on wood-based product markets. Test runs of the modeling framework on a Swedish case highlight the necessity of considering timber assortments for a comprehensive integration of forest resources and wood-based commodity market dynamics. Hence, the composition of harvest demand in terms of timber assortment affects the allocation of harvesting activities and, consequently, the development of forest resources (and thus future harvest potentials), as well as the production, trade and consumption of wood-based products.

Harmonised projections of future forest resources in Europe

“…Furthermore, continuation studies integrating forestry dynamics with economic dynamics (supply and demand) models are obviously needed. Earlier studies have shown the possibility to couple the EFDM with econometric models (Jonsson et al 2016) and parameterise the EFDM to produce carbon-related metrics under climate-induced uncertainties (Vauhkonen and Packalen 2018) or changes in future forest use (see also .…”

The impact on global wood-product markets of increasing consumption of wood pellets within the European Union

“…The description of CBM is somewhat abridged, as the focus of the paper is developments in wood-product markets. For fuller details regarding model structures, assumptions, parameters and input data, we refer the reader to [20e22] for CBM and [23,24] for GFTM.…”

A Markov Chain Model for Simulating Wood Supply from Any-Aged Forest Management Based on National Forest Inventory (NFI) Data

“…It could be parameterized by activities based on generic management systems or silvicultural alternatives and harmonized sustainability criteria to determine the level of harvests for international and national policy support. Except for the work carried out by Jonsson et al [50], we are not aware that economic models for harvest demand would have been connected with area-based matrix models for forest resources. …”

“…[23]). While Sallnäs [23] reasoned the selection of the class limits based on applying a growth function, no such reasoning is presented in later publications [32,50]. Our choice to select the class limits in terms of the number of observations is well reasoned based on the background that the transition probabilities need to be estimated from the data.…”