Integrating monitoring and optimization modeling to inform flow decisions for Chinook salmon smolts

Wohner, Patti J.; Duarte, Adam; Wikert, John D.; Cavallo, Brad; Zeug, Steven C.; Peterson, James T.

doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2022.110058

Cited by 8 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 56 publications

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“…The effectiveness of water management actions that are intended to protect juvenile winter-run salmon is dependent on an unbiased and precise understanding of the distribution of individuals and which factors influence their distribution over space and time (Peterson and Duarte 2020;Wohner et al 2022). Despite the existing Sacramento River winter-run Chinook Salmon monitoring network, which is aimed at directly or indirectly informing water operation and fish management decisions, there is uncertainty in the fish count data that inform these decisions (Johnson et al 2017;Wohner et al 2022).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Natural resource managers may need to rely on modeling tools to properly calibrate fish count data and reduce bias when informing real-time water operation decisions, as it is not currently possible to generate rapid and accurate genetic run assignments for Chinook Salmon in the Central Valley during sampling days (yet see DeFilippo et al 2020;Deeg et al 2022). Further, the development of predictive modeling tools would allow real-time water operation decisions to be informed by empirical fish count data on days when monitoring is not conducted while accounting for known uncertainties, which would likely improve management effectiveness, flexibility, and responsiveness (Håkanson 2004;Conroy and Peterson 2013;Welch et al 2019;Wohner et al 2022). Future studies should consider expanding on our analysis by developing predictive occupancy models that account for imperfect detection and misidentification error to directly inform ongoing water operation planning within the Estuary (see Notice of Intent 2022).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Imperfect detection and misidentification affect inferences from data informing water operation decisions

Kirsch,

Peterson,

Duarte

et al. 2024

N American J Fish Manag

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ObjectiveManagers can modify river flow regimes using fish monitoring data to minimize impacts from water management infrastructure. For example, operation of the gate‐controlled Delta Cross Channel (DCC) in California can negatively affect the endangered Sacramento River Winter‐run Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha. Although guidelines have been developed for DCC operations using real‐time juvenile fish sampling count data, there is uncertainty about how environmental conditions influence fish occupancy and to what extent those relationships are affected by sampling and identification error.MethodsWe evaluated the effect of environmental conditions, imperfect detection, and misidentification error on salmon occupancy by analyzing data using hierarchical multistate occupancy models. A total of 14,147 trawl tows and beach seine hauls were conducted on 1,058 sampling days between October and December from 1996 to 2019. During these surveys, 2,803 juvenile Winter‐run Salmon were identified, and approximately 29% of the sampling days had at least one juvenile Winter‐run Salmon detected.ResultsThe probability of misidentifying an individual juvenile Winter‐run Salmon in the field was estimated to be 0.056 based on fish identification examinations and genetic sampling. Occupancy varied considerably and was related to flow characteristics, water clarity, weather, time of year, and whether occupancy was detected during the previous sampling day. However, these relationships and their significance changed considerably when accounting for imperfect detection and the probability of misidentifying individual juvenile salmon. Detection was less than 0.3 under average sampling conditions during a single sample and was influenced by flow, water clarity, site and volume sampled.ConclusionOur modeling results indicate that DCC gate closure decisions could occur on fewer days when not accounting for imperfect detection and misidentification error. These findings demonstrate the need to account for identification and detection error while using monitoring data to assess factors influencing fish occupancy and inform future management decisions.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Imperfect detection and misidentification affect inferences from data informing water operation decisions

Kirsch,

Peterson,

Duarte

et al. 2024

N American J Fish Manag

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“…There were malfunctions of HOBO loggers at six sites, during one survey occasion each. For the sites and survey occasions where temperature recordings failed, linear regression equations were created using recorded water temperatures of the other survey occasions at each site of interest and the corresponding air temperatures from the nearest approximate time and location of survey 46 . Air temperatures were accessed from timeanddate.com, which includes hourly weather recordings (temperature, precipitation, pressure, cloud cover etc.)…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of salinization on the occurrence of a long-lived vertebrate in a desert river

Mahan

Bassett

Duarte

et al. 2022

Sci Rep

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The lower Pecos River located in the southwest USA, is a naturally saline river system that has been significantly altered in relatively recent years. Climate change, coupled with anthropogenic disturbances such as dam construction have led to portions of the river becoming more susceptible to increased salinization and declines in water quality. These alterations have been documented to be detrimental to multiple freshwater communities; however, there is a lack of knowledge on how these alterations influence long-lived species in the river, such as freshwater turtles, where the effects can appear over dramatically different temporal scales. The Rio Grande Cooter (Pseudemys gorzugi) is a species of concern known to occur in the Pecos River. To understand the current distribution and habitat requirements for P. gorzugi in the Pecos River, we used a single-season, single-species occupancy modeling framework to estimate occurrence while accounting for the sampling process. Day of year, water surface area, and water visibility had the greatest influence on the ability to detect the species given a sampling unit is occupied. Conductivity (a measure of salinity) had the greatest influence on the occupancy probability for the species, where sites with higher conductivity coincided with lower occupancy probabilities. This study indicates that increased salinization on the lower Pecos River is a cause for concern regarding freshwater turtle populations within the Chihuahuan Desert.

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“…The changes in the divided flow ratio and the divided sediment ratio between Gaoyao and Shijiao stations have affected the hydrological process in the Great Bay Area (Liu et al, 2014). Therefore, Changes in the redistribution of water discharge and sediment load at Sixianjiao channel, optimal allocation of freshwater resources, and real-time optimal dispatching of water deserve further research (Liu et al, 2014;Liu et al, 2018a;Chang et al, 2020;Wohner et al, 2022).…”

Section: Implications For Sustainable Developmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long-term variations in water discharge and sediment load of the Pearl River Estuary: Implications for sustainable development of the Greater Bay Area

Liu

Fagherazzi²,

Liu³

et al. 2022

Front. Mar. Sci.

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The water discharge and sediment load have been increasingly altered by climate change and human activities in recent decades. For the Pearl River, however, long-term variations in the sediment regime, especially in the last decade, remain poorly known. Here we updated knowledge of the temporal trends in the sediment regime of the Pearl River at annual, seasonal and monthly time scales from the 1950s to 2020. Results show that the annual sediment load and suspended sediment concentration (SSC) exhibited drastically decreased, regardless of water discharge. Compared with previous studies, we also found that sediment load and SSC reached a conspicuous peak in the 1980s, and showed a significant decline starting in the 2000s and 1990s, respectively. In the last decade, however, water discharge and sediment load showed slightly increasing trends. At the seasonal scale, the wet-season water discharge displays a decreasing trend, while the dry-season water discharge is increasing. At the monthly scale, the flood seasons in the North and East Rivers typically occur one month earlier than that in the West River due to the different precipitation regimes. Precipitation was responsible for the long-term change of discharge, while human activities (e.g. dam construction and land use change) exerted different effects on the variations in sediment load among different periods. Changes in the sediment regime have exerted substantial influences on downstream channel morphology and saltwater intrusion in the Greater Bay Area. Our study proposes a watershed-based solution, and provides scientific guidelines for the sustainable development of the Greater Bay Area.

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Integrating monitoring and optimization modeling to inform flow decisions for Chinook salmon smolts

Cited by 8 publications

References 56 publications

Imperfect detection and misidentification affect inferences from data informing water operation decisions

Imperfect detection and misidentification affect inferences from data informing water operation decisions

Effects of salinization on the occurrence of a long-lived vertebrate in a desert river

Long-term variations in water discharge and sediment load of the Pearl River Estuary: Implications for sustainable development of the Greater Bay Area

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