Integrating rapid risk mapping and mobile phone call record data for strategic malaria elimination planning

Abstract

BackgroundAs successful malaria control programmes re-orientate towards elimination, the identification of transmission foci, targeting of attack measures to high-risk areas and management of importation risk become high priorities. When resources are limited and transmission is varying seasonally, approaches that can rapidly prioritize areas for surveillance and control can be valuable, and the most appropriate attack measure for a particular location is likely to differ depending on whether it exports or imports malaria infections.Methods/ResultsHere, using the example of Namibia, a method for targeting of interventions using surveillance data, satellite imagery, and mobile phone call records to support elimination planning is described. One year of aggregated movement patterns for over a million people across Namibia are analyzed, and linked with case-based risk maps built on satellite imagery. By combining case-data and movement, the way human population movements connect transmission risk areas is demonstrated. Communities that were strongly connected by relatively higher levels of movement were then identified, and net export and import of travellers and infection risks by region were quantified. These maps can aid the design of targeted interventions to maximally reduce the number of cases exported to other regions while employing appropriate interventions to manage risk in places that import them.ConclusionsThe approaches presented can be rapidly updated and used to identify where active surveillance for both local and imported cases should be increased, which regions would benefit from coordinating efforts, and how spatially progressive elimination plans can be designed. With improvements in surveillance systems linked to improved diagnosis of malaria, detailed satellite imagery being readily available and mobile phone usage data continually being collected by network providers, the potential exists to make operational use of such valuable, complimentary and contemporary datasets on an ongoing basis in infectious disease control and elimination.

Temperature and population density determine reservoir regions of seasonal persistence in highland malaria

“…A better understanding of persistence would require, however, additional consideration of spatial variation in demographic and environmental factors at sufficiently high spatial and temporal resolution. Although among demographic factors, human mobility has recently attracted attention [5][6][7][8][9], the role of population density remains poorly understood in the population dynamics of malaria and other vector-transmitted diseases. In particular, larger numbers of hosts in mathematical models generally dilute the number of vector bites and in so doing also decrease transmission rates [10].…”

Dynamic population mapping using mobile phone data

“…Most of these studies focused on specific cities or city neighborhoods or groups, and were aimed at understanding traffic flows (40), mapping the intensity of human activities at different times (42)(43)(44), or exploring seasonality in foreign tourist numbers and destinations (45,46). Population movement analyses based on MP data are particularly promising for improving responses to disasters (47,48) and for planning malaria elimination strategies (49)(50)(51). However, to date, these data have not been assessed in their capacity to map human population at fine spatial and temporal resolutions over large geographical extents.…”

Geospatial Technology: A Tool to Aid in the Elimination of Malaria in Bangladesh

“…Using household surveys, malaria hot-spots (the clustering of high malaria incidence cases) data, and more readily available spatial malaria databases along with a better understanding by decision makers on the usages and capabilities of these spatial analytical methods, can lead to more successful malaria elimination strategies [26]. The use of GIS and GPS systems connected to mobile phones [27] can also aid in malaria case detection and delivery of health services particularly in remote areas of CHT where tracking and analyzing malaria prevalence data can often be difficult [28]. With changing malaria epidemiology and reduced burden of malaria throughout the country, Bangladesh needs to focus on CHT region elimination strategies to address malaria hot-spots efficiently and effectively as well as reduce malaria importation, insecticide resistance, drug resistance [29], and the mapping of asymptomatic carrier [24].…”