Integrating risk and performance reliability for flow augmentation

Abstract

Subjective elements are unavoidable when computing a quantitative risk of acceptance. This is true also in hydrologic analysis of water quality and flooding problems. As a result, decision-makers are faced with conflicts regarding choice of control measures that involve integration of quantitative risk and performance reliability. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate advantages of utilizing available data and knowledge of experts in assigning probabilities in estimating risk to manage regulation of streamflow. This is done by including uncertainties of observation, and the use of Bayesian rule in computing estimated risk, while at the same time making choice of designs to ensure reliability for flow augmentation. Illustrations show results of methods of observed and simulated inflow conditions to satisfy demands for wastewater assimilation and storage requirement for recreational purposes.