Integrating Risk Assessment and Decision‐Making Methods in Analyzing the Dynamics of COVID‐19 Epidemics in Davao City, Mindanao Island, Philippines

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has become a public health crisis in the Philippines and the attention of national and local health authorities is focused on managing the fluctuating COVID-19 cases. This study presents a method that integrates risk management tools into health care decision-making processes to enhance the understanding and utilization of risk-based thinking in public health decision making. The risk assessment consists of the identification of the key risk factors of the COVID-19 contagion via bow-tie diagrams. Second, the safety controls for each risk factor relevant to the Davao City context are taken into account and are identified as barriers in the bow-tie. After which, the prioritization of the identified COVID-19 risks, as well as the effectiveness of the proposed interventions, is performed using the analytic hierarchy process. Consequently, the dynamics of COVID-19 management initiatives were explored using these priorities and a system of ordinary differential equations. Our results show that reducing the number of COVID-19 fatalities should be the top priority of the health authorities. In turn, we predict that the COVID-19 contagion can be controlled and eliminated in Davao city in three-month time after prioritizing the fatalities. In order to reduce the COVID-19 fatalities, health authorities should ensure an adequate number of COVID-ready ICU facilities. The general public, on the other hand, should follow medical and science-based advice and suspected and confirmed COVID-19 patients should strictly follow isolation protocols. Overall, an informed decision-making is necessary to avoid the unwanted consequences of an uncontrolled contagion.

Transmission dynamics and baseline epidemiological parameter estimates of Coronavirus disease 2019 pre-vaccination: Davao City, Philippines

“…The implementation of control interventions were essential for the reduction of the values of these parameters (β, r, q, and μ H ) to mitigate the spread and lessen the hospitalizations due to COVID-19. Logrosa and colleagues corroborate that if the local government prioritized reducing COVID-19 fatality, the COVID-19 pandemic will be manageable, at least in the context of Davao City, Philippines [27].…”

“…Davao City is the largest city in the Philippines based on land area. It is located in Region 11 (Davao Region), the most populous region in Mindanao-the southern part of the country [27]. The statistics from the Department of Health-Davao Center for Health Development (DOH-DCHD) show that Davao City accounts for almost 57% of Davao Region's COVID-19 cases (as of June 26, 2021).…”

Global systemic risk and resilience for novel coronavirus in postpandemic era

“…Risk assessment and analysis Logrosa et al (2021) present a method that integrates risk management tools into health care decision-making processes to enhance the understanding and utilization of risk-based thinking in public health decision making. The risk assessment consists of the identification of the key risk factors of the COVID-19 contagion via bow-tie diagrams.…”

An agent-based model of COVID-19 dynamics during enhanced community quarantine: Exploring the role of food relief system in the presence of two SARS-CoV-2 variants

“…The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic prompted different government organizations worldwide to formulate pandemic response measures aimed at lessening the spread of the disease. Since mobility and human interaction are mainly the key factors that affect infectious disease transmission [1], most of these response measures involve the isolation or containment of individuals up to certain rules and localities [2][3][4]. Efforts made by the Philippine government mostly involved recommendations from the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Center for Disease Control (CDC), as well as the minimum health standards implemented by other countries [5].…”