Intégration d'un filtre de Kalman dans le modèle hydrologique HBV pour la prévision des débits

Abstract

Résumé Un filtre de Kalman standard a été développé en vue de la mise à jour de certaines variables d'état de la fonction du sous-sol et de la sortie du modèle HBV. La version globale du modèle HBV, fonctionnant au pas de temps horaire, a été calée par essais et erreurs sur les bassins tunisiens des Oueds Barbara et Mellila. Le pas de temps journalier a été considéré pour évaluer la qualité de la reconstitution. Le modèle a été ensuite couplé avec le filtre en reformulant le modèle conceptuel en un système d'équations d'état dynamiques et en implémentant la procédure du filtre de Kalman. L'hydrogramme des débits horaires constitue la mesure introduite pour la correction des états. Malgré un choix suivant la littérature des erreurs sur les mesures et les états du système, ce filtre a permis de réduire nettement l'incertitude sur le débit engendré par le processus pluie-débit et la pluie d'entrée.Mots clefs assimilation des données; filtre de Kalman; modèle HBV; mise à jour; modélisation pluie-débit; temps réel Integration of a Kalman filter in the HBV hydrological model for runoff forecastingAbstract A standard Kalman filter was developed with the purpose of updating certain state variables of the lower zone function and the output of the HBV model. The global version of the HBV model, functioning with an hourly time step, was calibrated by trial and error to the Tunisian basins of the Barbara and Mellila Wadis. The daily time step was considered for evaluating the quality of the data reconstitution. The model was then coupled with the Kalman filter by reformulating the conceptual model as a system of dynamic state equations and implementing the Kalman filter procedure. The hourly discharge hydrograph constitutes the introduced measurement to correct state variables. Despite a literature-driven selection of the errors on measurements and system states, this filter clearly allowed reduction of the uncertainty on discharge produced by the rainfall-runoff process and the precipitation input.

Dryland hydrology in Mediterranean regions—a review

“…Thirdly, effort is focused on methodology: robust methods are developed to provide a compromise between applicability and accuracy, particularly in the field of rainfall-runoff modelling (Camarasa & Tilford, 2002;Benkaci Ali & Dechemi, 2004;Nasri et al, 2004b;Cudennec et al, 2005;Hreiche et al, 2007;Moussa et al, 2007;McIntyre et al, 2007;Ouachani et al, 2007;Chaponnière et al, 2007), which is a major concern in semi-arid and arid basins (Pilgrim et al, 1988;Hughes, 1995;Sharma & Murthy, 1998;Wheater et al, 2006); complementary methods are combined, particularly in hydrogeology (Kamel et al, 2006;Bouri et al, 2007;Leduc et al 2007;Fadlelmawla et al, 2008), or between hydrological and social sciences (Barriendos & Rodrigo, 2006;Brewer et al, 2007;Martín-Rosales et al, 2007;Romagny & Riaux, 2007); models and analyses are coupled, for instance between surface water and groundwater hydrology (Rozos et al, 2004;Bouri et al, 2007;Kingumbi et al, 2007), and between stochastic and dynamic approaches (Hreiche et al, 2007;Kingumbi et al, 2007;Lajili-Ghezal, 2007); and comparisons are developed to identify specificities (Möller & Stanhill, 2007;Romagny & Riaux, 2007).…”

Modelling Estimation of the Available Rainwater Resource in Gbédji-Kotovi Clay Area for Supplying Dikes and Dams

“…it further, some components can be rendered inactive. The HBV model and its variants have been applied in a large number of countries and environments [13].…”

Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Discharge of the Lakhmass Catchment (Northwest Tunisia)

“…In Tunisia, HBV-light was used in the catchment of Oued Tessa to characterize the impact of uncertainty related to rainfall on the flows simulated by the model [27]. It was also coupled with Kalman filter to simulate discharge at daily and sub-daily time step in the catchments of wadi Barbara and wadi Melilla to evaluate the quality of the data reconstitution [28]. The model has been used to estimate discharge in historical periods to extract catchment proprieties and its response to rain events.…”