Integration of FMEA and Bayesian network methods for risk assessment of components delay in ferry ship construction

Abstract

Construction of new ships in Indonesia. In this case study, the construction of a 600 DWT Ro-Ro ferry. The 600 DWT Shipbuilding Project involves various risks that may affect the schedule and results. A risk assessment involving the quality control team, project lead, and production management is carried out to identify and quantify the level of risk and its consequences.
 The results of this assessment assist in understanding and managing project risk, stress the importance of communication and coordination between teams, and enable better contingency planning and more effective project management. The FMEA calculation method is used to identify potential failure modes, determine the impact of each failure, and calculate a risk score based on the probability and effect of each failure. The Bayesian method updates the likelihood of failure based on new data that appears during the shipbuilding process. FMEA data is taken from the RPN (Risk Priority Number) at the Occurrence value, then weighted against the list of risks. Most risks are considered 'rare' in terms of likelihood and 'insignificant' in terms of consequence, indicating that despite potential obstacles, the impact on the project is expected to be minimal. However, several risks with 'minor' effects have been identified, highlighting the importance of effective risk planning and mitigation.
 The integration of this method still needs to be improved, especially in the shipping industry. This method can be developed by making applications to control the procurement of materials at the beginning and during the construction and evaluation process at the end. The effort to make the ship construction timely according to the contract answers the shipbuilding challenges that often occur in developing countries