Integration of human factors in project uncertainty management, a decision support system based on fuzzy logic

Abstract

Decision-making under uncertainty implies dealing with information about different choices and their consequences that is partial for the decision-maker. In front of uncertainty, either the decision can be postponed, waiting for complementary information or the decision can be only made on the available information, despite possible consequences on the decision. We propose a model to identify and structure needed information. Human factors are taken into consideration in this structure. Then, to process the collected information, we propose a Fuzzy Decision Support System (FDSS) which deals with uncertain information. In this approach, a sequence of decisions leads to a final choice, taking progressively into account new information whose role is to refine available information. Human representation and reasoning mode are imitated, respectively by fuzzy sets and fuzzy inference rules. We apply the proposed FDSS to a case study held on a ski resort. The results with this approach prove effective compared to those a naive decisional approach.

Conceptualising Project Uncertainty in the Context of Building Refurbishment Safety: A Systematic Review

“…However, this lack of agreement has become a fundamental issue that continues to broaden arguments in the literature associated with the concept of uncertainty. Consider two examples; uncertainty refers to 'a subject's conscious lack of knowledge about an object, which is not yet clearly defined (or known), in a context requiring a decision' [26] (p. 663); or, uncertainty refers to a; 'the absence of information required for the decision that needs to be taken at a point in time' [27] (p. 347). These definitions suggest that uncertainty is a situation where a person does not have full knowledge or has difficultly understanding a particular situation [16,28].…”

“…Information should derive from various sources, such as information pertaining to the existing structure [68], adjacent structures [66], pre-construction conditions (strength of walls, the material used, and services installation) [70]. Due to uncertain information, project teams often tend to make a decision regardless of the consequences of the action that ultimately affect in achieving project objectives [26].…”

“…Lack of experience of this particular activity/experience of the project team [25,26,48,53,60,65,67] • Clarity of construction methods employed [20,66,68] Table 1 is clarified in the following. However, some factors, despite being presented in the literature, were not included in Table 1.…”