Integration of machine learning XGBoost and SHAP models for NBA game outcome prediction and quantitative analysis methodology

Abstract

This study investigated the application of artificial intelligence in real-time prediction of professional basketball games, identifying the variations within performance indicators that are critical in determining the outcomes of the games. Utilizing games data from the NBA seasons 2021 to 2023 as the sample, the study constructed a real-time predictive model for NBA game outcomes, integrating the machine learning XGBoost and SHAP algorithms. The model simulated the prediction of game outcomes at different time of games and effectively quantified the analysis of key factors that influenced game outcomes. The study’s results demonstrated that the XGBoost algorithm was highly effective in predicting NBA game outcomes. Key performance indicators such as field goal percentage, defensive rebounds, and turnovers were consistently related to the outcomes at all times during the game. In the first half of the game, assists were a key indicator affecting the outcome of the game. In the second half of the games, offensive rebounds and three-point shooting percentage were key indicators affecting the outcome of the games. The performance of the real-time prediction model for NBA game outcomes, which integrates machine learning XGBoost and SHAP algorithms, is found to be excellent and highly interpretable. By quantifying the factors that determine victory, it is able to provide significant decision support for coaches in arranging tactical strategies on the court. Moreover, the study provides reliable data references for sports bettors, athletes, club managers, and sponsors.