Integration of multi-archive datasets for the development of a four-dimensional paleoflood model of alpine catchments

Schulte, Lothar; Wetter, Oliver; Wilhelm, Bruno; Peña, Juan Carlos; Amann, Benjamin; Wirth, Stefanie B.; Carvalho, Filipe; Gómez-Bolea, Antonio

doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2019.05.011

Cited by 18 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 47 publications

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“…The existence of flood-rich periods in the last 500 years has been demonstrated for a number of individual catchments in Europe based on historical documentary evidence 5,6,7,8 and mountain lake sediments 9 . One of the few available regional studies (19 documentary-based data series) identified 1540-1600, 1640-1700, 1730-1790 and 1790-1840 as flood-rich periods in Central Europe 2 , which is roughly consistent with sedimentary evidence from a set of Alpine lakes 10 and six floodplains 11 in Central Europe. Several authors have suggested that more frequent flooding in the Little Ice Age (1300-1870), and specifically the late Maunder Solar Minimum (1675-1725), can be related to lower air temperatures 6,2,12,8 , but a more universal relationship with air temperatures for other flood-rich periods has not been identified 7,13,11 .…”

Section: Historical Flood Contextsupporting

confidence: 61%

“…One of the few available regional studies (19 documentary-based data series) identified 1540-1600, 1640-1700, 1730-1790 and 1790-1840 as flood-rich periods in Central Europe 2 , which is roughly consistent with sedimentary evidence from a set of Alpine lakes 10 and six floodplains 11 in Central Europe. Several authors have suggested that more frequent flooding in the Little Ice Age (1300-1870), and specifically the late Maunder Solar Minimum (1675-1725), can be related to lower air temperatures 6,2,12,8 , but a more universal relationship with air temperatures for other flood-rich periods has not been identified 7,13,11 . Temperature anomalies can be considered a proxy for changes in the atmospheric circulation system and are therefore of relevance for assessing past and future flood frequency changes.…”

Section: Historical Flood Contextsupporting

confidence: 61%

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Current European flood-rich period exceptional compared with past 500 years

Blöschl

Kiss

Viglione

et al. 2020

Nature

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218

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There are concerns that recent climate change is altering the frequency and magnitudes of river floods in an unprecedented way 1 . Historical studies have identified flood-rich periods in the past half millennium in various regions of Europe 2 . However, because of the low temporal resolution of existing data sets and the relatively low number of series across Europe, it has remained unclear whether Europe is currently in a flood-rich period from a long term perspective. We analyze how recent decades compare with the flood history of Europe, using a new database composed of more than 100 high-resolution (sub-annual) historical flood series based on documentary evidence covering all major regions of Europe. Here we show that the past three decades were among the most flood-rich periods in Europe in the last 500 years, and that this period differs from other floodrich periods in terms of its extent, air temperatures and flood seasonality. We identified nine floodrich periods and associated regions. Among the periods richest in floods are 1560-1580 (Western and Central Europe), 1760-1800 (most of Europe), 1840-1870 (Western and Southern Europe), and 1990. In most parts of Europe previous flood-rich periods occurred during cooler than usual phases, however the current flood-rich period has been much warmer. In the past, the dominant flood seasons in flood-rich periods were similar to those during the intervening (interflood) periods, but flood seasonality is more pronounced in the recent period. For example, during previous flood and interflood periods, 41% and 42% of Central European floods occurred in summer respectively, compared to 55% of floods in the recent period. The uniqueness of the present-day flood-rich period calls for process-based flood risk assessment tools and flood risk management strategies that can incorporate these changes.

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Section: Historical Flood Contextsupporting

confidence: 61%

Section: Historical Flood Contextsupporting

confidence: 61%

Current European flood-rich period exceptional compared with past 500 years

Blöschl

Kiss

Viglione

et al. 2020

Nature

Self Cite

218

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“…Issues identified in the current synthesis include (1) low resolution palaeoclimatic data, (2) limited age control depending on dating techniques and uncertainties, (3) unevenly spaced time series, which can include time lags and gaps, (4) conflicting information from multiple proxies, and (5) alteration by land use changes. See Lüning et al () and Schulte et al () for more detailed discussions. Many paleoclimate records on land retrieved form lakes, lagoons, peatland, and so on, may be influenced since the 11th century by increasing local and regional land use changes and human perturbation as consequence of the rising foundation of cities and monasteries in many regions of Europe and in the Mediterranean.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Medieval Climate Anomaly in the Mediterranean Region

Lüning¹,

Schulte

Garcés‐Pastor

et al. 2019

Paleoceanog and Paleoclimatol

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The Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) is a preindustrial phase of pronounced natural climate variability with a core period from 1000 to 1200 CE. The paper presents a synthesis that integrates palaeotemperature records from the Greater Mediterranean Region encompassing the past 1,500 years based on multiproxy data from 79 published land and marine sites. MCA warming dominated the Western Mediterranean (Iberia, NW Africa) as well as the northern land areas of the Central and Eastern Mediterranean region. MCA cooling prevailed in the Canary Current Upwelling System, southern Levant, and some sea areas of the Central and Eastern Mediterranean. Previous palaeoreconstructions suggest persistent positive Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO+) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO+) conditions during the MCA, while the Little Ice Age was dominated by an AMO− and NAO− regime. During the past 150 years, AMO+ conditions are typically associated with warming episodes in the Mediterranean area. A similar relationship appears to have also been established during the MCA as the majority of all Mediterranean land sites experienced warm climate conditions. In contrast, the NAO typically leads to a characteristic west‐east temperature dipole pattern in the basin, as documented for the last decades. During NAO+ conditions the Western Mediterranean is generally warm (and dry), while large parts of the Central and Eastern Mediterranean are cold. Similar trends seem to have been developed during the MCA when the NAO+ regime led to consistent warming in the Western Mediterranean, while a significant number of sites with MCA cooling existed in the Central and Eastern Mediterranean.

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“…Benito et al, 2004;Jones et al, 2012;Schulte et al, 2009), many only compare one archive with historical data. Studies that achieve spatial-temporal integration from more than one archive are comparably rare (Schulte et al, 2015;Schulte et al, 2019a). Our investigation not only demonstrates how a range of archives can be mined to shed light on spatial-temporal dynamics of a historic flood but it also successfully applies this technique in a part of the world where there are comparably few examples of multiproxy reconstructions (Schulte et al, 2019b).…”

Section: Insight Gained From the Integration Of Historical Geomorphol...mentioning

confidence: 79%