Integrative model of a population distribution in a habitat

Gertseva, Vladlena V.; Gertsev, V.I.; Ponomarev, N.Y.

doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2005.08.037

Cited by 7 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 10 publications

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“…According to Gertseva et al [114], the organisms in a population can change their distribution depending on the values of the dominant factor but not in response to the values of sub-dominant factors. To determine the dominant variable in this study, a doubleentry matrix was developed with all four variables of Model III_SA in order to generate all possible combinations of variables (Table 7).…”

Section: Dominant Variables In the Current Distribution Of Gossypium ...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Loss and Gain in Potential Distribution of Threatened Wild Cotton Gossypium thurberi in Mexico under Future Climate

et al. 2022

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Gossypium thurberi, a threatened wild cotton species native to northern Mexico and southwestern USA, is globally important because its agronomic traits can be introgressed into cultivated species to improve fiber quality and resistance to biotic and abiotic stressors. However, studies on the current and future potential distribution of the species are scarce. The objectives of this study were (1) to develop a distribution model of G thurberi using a Geographic Information System platform, (2) determine environmental factors that influence the current distribution of the species in Mexico, and (3) estimate the potential distribution of the species under current and future climates. We analyzed the following variables: Annual Available Soil Water (mm year−1, AASW), Flowering Growing Degree Days (FGDD), absolute minimum temperature (°C, Tminabs), and altitude (amsl, ALT). Results showed that the current potential distribution of G. thurberi in northern Mexico, estimated at 112,727 square kilometers, is projected to be drastically reduced by 77 and 86%, considering a possible increase in temperature of 1.5 °C and 2 °C in near-future (2021–2040) and mid-future (2041–2060) climates, respectively, and a 100 mm reduction in average annual precipitation under both climates. The greatest reduction will be in areas in Sonora (Mexico) adjoining Arizona (USA), where the largest populations of the species are currently reported. AASW, FGDD, and ALT jointly influence the distribution of G. thurberi, with AASW as the dominant factor under future climate change. The areas that may continue to harbor populations of G. thurberi under future climate will present AASW of 0.2–55.6 mm year−1, FGDD of 242–547, and ALT between 550 and 1561 amsl. The projected future potential distribution in the country includes new suitable areas, including one in the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt, that may serve as refuge areas. The findings can contribute to the design of more precise collection efforts and conservation strategies to prevent species extinction.

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Section: Dominant Variables In the Current Distribution Of Gossypium ...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Loss and Gain in Potential Distribution of Threatened Wild Cotton Gossypium thurberi in Mexico under Future Climate

et al. 2022

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“…It can be concluded that FGDD is a more dominant factor than AASW for the species because it was the only variable of these two that caused changes in the distribution. According to Gertseva et al [56] the organisms in a population can change their distribution depending on the values of the dominant factor but not in response to the values of subdominant factors.…”

Section: Sensitivity Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling the Distribution of Wild Cotton Gossypium aridum in Mexico Using Flowering Growing Degree Days and Annual Available Soil Water

et al. 2022

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Climate change is expected to alter species distribution and habitat composition, with wild species being particularly vulnerable. Gossypium aridum, a wild cotton species in Mexico, has shown a decrease in habitat extent and population; however, the data are not precise. The objectives of this study are: (1) to develop a distribution model of G. aridum in Mexico, (2) to identify areas with environmental conditions similar to where the species currently maintains populations, and (3) to determine which variable, flowering growing degree days (FGDD) or annual available soil water (AASW, mm year−1), has greater influence on the distribution of the species. Geographic information system (GIS) software was used with datasets from two databases in Mexico that were partitioned for site characterization, model construction, calibration, validation, and sensitivity analysis. The range of 330–860 FGDD and 4–110 mm year−1 AASW best described the species habitat, according to results of seven precision and accuracy statistical tests. The model identified geographic regions throughout the country with similar conditions as the locations where the species has been observed, including some where no collections have not yet been registered in Mexican databases. FGDD, rather than AASW, showed greater influence on the distribution of the species. The generated information can be used to guide collection expeditions for G. aridum and to study climatic impact on species distribution. The approach using FGDD and AASW can be used in the modeling of wild cotton species that are valuable natural resources for crop improvement.

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“…We developed the concepts of proper and mutual preferendums, which allow the determination of fish spatial preferences under various environmental conditions (Gertsev and Gertseva, 1999;Gertseva and Gertsev, 2002;Gertseva et al, 2006). The term preferendum g i , first introduced by Odum (1971), is the interval of values of factor g i that is preferred by fish from the whole range of possible factor's values.…”

Section: Directions For the Numeric Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

A conceptual model of fish functional relationships in marine ecosystems and its application for fisheries stock assessment

Gertseva

Gertsev

2006

Fisheries Research

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Integrative model of a population distribution in a habitat

Cited by 7 publications

References 10 publications

Loss and Gain in Potential Distribution of Threatened Wild Cotton Gossypium thurberi in Mexico under Future Climate

Loss and Gain in Potential Distribution of Threatened Wild Cotton Gossypium thurberi in Mexico under Future Climate

Modeling the Distribution of Wild Cotton Gossypium aridum in Mexico Using Flowering Growing Degree Days and Annual Available Soil Water

A conceptual model of fish functional relationships in marine ecosystems and its application for fisheries stock assessment

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