Integrative system dynamics: analysis of policy options for tobacco control in New Zealand

Cavana, Robert Y.; Tobias, Martin

doi:10.1002/sres.934

Cited by 35 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…These diagrams are for illustration only and actual application of them to the real world would require further testing and iteration [32]. While system dynamics methods have been used to study tobacco control [21,22,[39][40][41][42][43][44][45][46][47][48][49][50][51][52][53][54][55][56] and even to inform implementation of evidence into practice broadly [21], this is the first attempt to apply the method to illustrate dynamic complexity and efforts within each translational stage.…”

Section: Methods: Diagramming Complex Systems Problems Using System Dmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…With a simulated version of the model integrating relevant data and scientific evidence, the hypothesis could be tested in silico to inform evaluation measures for research examining the effectiveness and efficacy of such an intervention. Other combination intervention scenarios can be formulated and simulated, to help teams determine which combination of interventions is likely to best support reaching tobacco prevention goals [21,60,61].…”

Section: Original Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Translating research into prevention of high-risk behaviors in the presence of complex systems: definitions and systems frameworks

Lich

Frerichs

Fishbein

et al. 2016

Behav. Med. Pract. Policy Res.

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To impact population health, it is critical to collaborate across disciplinary and practice-based silos and integrate resources, experiences, and knowledge to exert positive change. Complex systems shape both the prevention outcomes researchers, practitioners, and policymakers seek to impact and how research is translated and can either impede or support movement from basic scientific discovery to impactful and scaled-up prevention practice. Systems science methods can be used to facilitate designing translation support that is grounded in a richer understanding of the many interacting forces affecting prevention outcomes across contexts. In this paper, we illustrate how one systems science method, system dynamics, could be used to advance research, practice, and policy initiatives in each stage of translation from discovery to translation of innovation into global communities (T0-T5), with tobacco prevention as an example. System dynamics can be applied to each translational stage to integrate disciplinary knowledge and document testable hypotheses to inform translation research and practice.

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Section: Methods: Diagramming Complex Systems Problems Using System Dmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Original Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

Translating research into prevention of high-risk behaviors in the presence of complex systems: definitions and systems frameworks

Lich

Frerichs

Fishbein

et al. 2016

Behav. Med. Pract. Policy Res.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…There have been arguments for removing commercial incentives for tobacco supply,3 4 and ideas for regulatory structures that might better hasten the declines in smoking prevalence 5. Others have discussed the progressive reduction of the level of nicotine in tobacco,6 and modelling work suggests that this would help 7. Another suggested regulatory framework is one where the degree of regulation equates to the harmfulness of nicotine-delivery products 8…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Ending appreciable tobacco use in a nation: using a sinking lid on supply: Figure 1

et al. 2010

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We discuss some of the practical and ethical questions that may arise for a jurisdiction where a sinking lid endgame strategy for tobacco supply is implemented. Such a strategy would involve regular required reductions in the amount of tobacco released to the market for sale, sufficient to achieve the desired level of commercial sales by a target date. Tobacco manufacturers would periodically bid to the government for a residual quota. Prices would increase as supply reduced. The price level would be influenced by demand, which in turn would reflect the impact of other interventions to reduce demand and the changing normality of smoking. Higher priced tobacco could result in increased smuggling, theft, illegal sales and short-to-medium-term aggravation of some social inequalities. We suggest that the strategy be introduced in conjunction with a range of complementary interventions that would help reduce demand, and thus help ensure that the possible adverse effects are minimised. These complementary interventions include: providing comprehensive best practice smoking cessation support, better information to smokers and the public, strengthened regulation of tobacco retailing and supply, further controlling the pack and product design, measures to restrict supplies that bypass the increases in product price, strengthened enforcement and combating industry attacks. General prerequisites for a sinking lid strategy include public support for the goal of a tobacco-free society, and strong political leadership. The likely context for initial success in jurisdictions includes geographical isolation and/or strong border controls, absence of significant tobacco production and/or manufacturing and low government corruption.

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“…A similar scenario analysis was successfully used by Cavana and Tobias [2] in a dynamic analysis of policy options for tobacco control in New Zealand.…”

Section: Scenario Planning and Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of Policy Options for Projects in the Electricity Sector in Sub Saharan Africa: A System Dynamics Approach

Ogano

Pretorius

2017

SAJIE

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Many projects in the electricity energy sector in Africa's subSaharan region experience delays and challenges to quality, leading to frequent power outages that slow overall economic activity and frustrate investor confidence in the region. This paper presents the systemic methods employed to evaluate the dynamic consequences of policies in electricity energy sector projects in the region. The model uses the Vensim software to carry out the simulations. A range of illustrative scenarios are provided and analysed, and the paper compares and contrasts these different scenarios. The results show that there is merit in improving project management competence in the region. A shortage of commissioning engineers also emerged as a major problem in the projects, leading to multitasking as the few existing commissioning engineers move from one project to another. To address this weakness, the study proposes that contracting firms be compelled to employ a higher proportion of commissioning engineers. OPSOMMINGBaie projekte in die elektrisiteit energiesektor in die sub-SaharaAfrika streek ervaar kwaliteit uitdagings en vertragings, wat lei tot gereelde kragonderbrekings. Dit verlangsaam die algehele ekonomiese aktiwiteit en frustreer beleggersvertroue in die streek. Hierdie artikel bied die sistemiese metodes wat gebruik is om die dinamiese gevolge van beleid in die elektrisiteit energiesektor projekte in die streek te evalueer. Die model maak gebruik van die Vensim sagteware om die simulasies uit te voer. 'n Verskeidenheid van illustratiewe scenario's word aangebied en ontleed, en die verskillende scenario's word vergelyk en kontrasteer. Die resultate wys dat daar meriete is in die verbetering van projekbestuur kundigheid in die streek. Die tekort aan ingenieurs wat die projekte kan uitvoer, is ook uitgewys as 'n groot problem, waar die van die ingenieurs verwag word om met 'n multi-taak benadering tussen die projekte te beweeg. Om dit te adresseer, word daar voorgestel dat die kontrakteurs 'n groter hoeveelheid van die ingenieurs moet indiens neem.

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Integrative system dynamics: analysis of policy options for tobacco control in New Zealand

Cited by 35 publications

References 18 publications

Translating research into prevention of high-risk behaviors in the presence of complex systems: definitions and systems frameworks

Translating research into prevention of high-risk behaviors in the presence of complex systems: definitions and systems frameworks

Ending appreciable tobacco use in a nation: using a sinking lid on supply: Figure 1

Analysis of Policy Options for Projects in the Electricity Sector in Sub Saharan Africa: A System Dynamics Approach

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