Intellectual fashion forecasting simulations and application

Abstract

For over 40 years Boeing has published an annual forecast for the growth of air travel worldwide. Current Market Outlook has become a standard reference for planners in government and industry. Major methodological changes in the forecast occurred in mid of 1990. These were a result of rethinking the data, methods, and models. It turns out standard approaches over-emphasized the effect of GDP. On the other hand, statistics found a convincing and cogent link between trade and travel, even though the data appeared entirely random. Finally, a startlingly simple approach established the hitherto elusive link between travel and service quality. This talk is a light-hearted review of the things we did wrong and fixed, and the things we are still worried about. It provides a bittersweet contrast between the ways of industry and academia. In this study we discussed Identifying and tracking fashion trends, apply knowledge of fashion forecasting to understand how trends evolve and are interpreted by industry. As a bonus we introduce Occam's Toothbrush an entirely new, hopelessly backwards, and entirely un-publishable way industry does hypothesis testing, but doesn't realize it.