Intelligent forecasting temperature measurements of solar PV cells using modified recurrent neural network

Abstract

For microgrids to operate optimally and minimize the effects of uncertainty, anticipating solar PV measurements is essential. For residential and commercial microgrids that use solar PV, the predicting of solar energy over a short period is crucial for managing grid-connected PVeffectively. Therefore, this work develops a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) for forecasting temperature measurements as time series records, where a combination of long short-term memory (LSTM) architecture with RNN is used to process input measurements by updating the RNN state and winding over time degrees. Data from the entire prior time steps is stored in the RNN state. A dataset of temperature waveform measurements is used, which includes 2000 unnaturally produced signals of three channels with varying length. An LSTM neural network can be used to expect future values of a time series or sequence utilizing data from earlier time steps as input. Training of a regression LSTM neural network through the output of a sequence is performed, where the goals are the training sequence with records shifting one-time step, for training theLSTM neural architecture with time series forecasting. In other words, the weights of the LSTM neural structure learn to predict the following time step values of the input sequence at every time step. By considering the past forecasts as inputs, the closed-loop prediction forecasts the next time steps of sequences. The model makes the forecast without using the true data. The cross-entropy loss serves as the loss function. It is found that the mean RMSE overall test observations were about 0.5080 which promises to make better predictions from learning the temporal context of input sequences