Inter-city connections in China: High-speed train vs. inter-city coach

Wang, Jiaoe; Du, Delin; Huang, Jie

doi:10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2019.102619

Cited by 50 publications

(27 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…Wuhan is an aviation hub in central China [15]. Wuhan and Hubei province are well connected with neighboring provinces by rail and coach [16]. We used monthly data from the SABRE database [17,18] to track the number of passengers to all possible destinations using historical data from 2016 to November 2019, the last month for which data were available at the time this paper was written.…”

Section: Analyzing Air Transport Patternsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Predictive Capacity of Air Travel Patterns during the Global Spread of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Risk, Uncertainty and Randomness

Christidis

Aris

2020

IJERPH

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Air travel has a decisive role in the spread of infectious diseases at the global level. We present a methodology applied during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic that uses detailed aviation data at the final destination level in order to measure the risk of the disease spreading outside China. The approach proved to be successful in terms of identifying countries with a high risk of infected travellers and as a tool to monitor the evolution of the pandemic in different countries. The high number of undetected or asymptomatic cases of COVID-19, however, limits the capacity of the approach to model the full dynamics. As a result, the risk for countries with a low number of passengers from Hubei province appeared as low. Globalization and international aviation connectivity allow travel times that are much shorter than the incubation period of infectious diseases, a fact that raises the question of how to react in a potential new pandemic.Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2020, 17, 3356 2 of 15 information and air travel networks to produce a user-defined global map of risk distribution [9]. A generic tool that allows the estimation of the median early disease arrival time from around the world using air transport schedules was proposed by [10]. Air travel patterns were also employed by Bajardi et al. [11] in order to theoretically model the potential impacts of travel restrictions on the spread of an epidemic. Nevertheless, while travel and trade have been shown as relevant for the international spread of the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza, the slow deployment of control measures in countries with lower healthcare capacities led to spatial imbalances [12]. Air transport data have been used indirectly to measure the effective distance and the relative arrival time of a disease outbreak, with promising results when tested on historical data [13]. Based on the same premises, producing near real-time or now-casting predictions on the international spread of COVID-19 appeared to be based on scientifically sound principles [14].However, most expectations about the ability to predict the global spread of COVID-19 proved misleading or of limited use.This includes our own work, which we present here in order to discuss the reasons why most projections missed important aspects of the disease propagation dynamics. In our opinion, and as a part of the scientific process, it is important to publish and discuss even the negative results of research activities. The lessons learned from unsuccessful applications can be valuable for future work, either by improving current practices or by re-examining risk assessment from a new perspective. Especially in the case of predictive modeling, the wide body of literature that presents successful ex-post examples of possible value may give the false impression that the spatial aspects of disease propagation are more easily predictable than what is actually possible in reality.The question this paper is trying to answer is whether air passenger traffic alone can provide early information...

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Section: Analyzing Air Transport Patternsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Predictive Capacity of Air Travel Patterns during the Global Spread of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Risk, Uncertainty and Randomness

Christidis

Aris

2020

IJERPH

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“…It handled 27 million passengers in 2019, an increase of 10.8% from 2018. Besides, Wuhan plays an important role in China's intercity coach network (Wang et al, 2020). The weekly frequencies of flights, HST and coaches out of Wuhan are illustrated in Figs.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Exploring the roles of high-speed train, air and coach services in the spread of COVID-19 in China

2020

Self Cite

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To understand the roles of different transport modes in the spread of COVID-19 pandemic across Chinese cities, this paper looks at the factors influencing the number of imported cases from Wuhan and the spread speed and pattern of the pandemic. We find that frequencies of air flights and high-speed train (HST) services out of Wuhan are significantly associated with the number of COVID-19 cases in the destination cities. The presence of an airport or HST station at a city is significantly related to the speed of the pandemic spread, but its link with the total number of confirmed cases is weak. The farther the distance from Wuhan, the lower number of cases in a city and the slower the dissemination of the pandemic. The longitude and latitude coordinates do not have a significant relationship with the number of total cases but can increase the speed of the COVID-19 spread. Specifically, cities in the higher longitudinal region tended to record a COVID-19 case earlier than their counterparties in the west. Cities in the north were more likely to report the first case later than those in the south. The pandemic may emerge in large cities earlier than in small cities as GDP is a factor positively associated with the spread speed.

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“…So it can be seen that accessibility and city image improvement are important intermediary variables. Previous studies also confirmed that accessibility is the fundamental reason for the social and economic effects of HSR (Jiao et al, 2020;Wang et al, 2020), but here, according to above mechanism, the direct reason for ULE is urban factors variation, so urban population, GDP, infrastructure etc. were set as control variables in our DID models.…”

Section: Variables Specificationmentioning

confidence: 51%

“…The travel time between the cities HSR connects is drastically reduced; additionally, HSR has the advantages of acceptable fares, punctuality, multiple runs, and environmental friendliness (Diao, Fan, & Zhang, 2019). Therefore, urban accessibility is improved significantly, which promotes the mobility of economic activities among cities (Wang, Du, & Huang, 2020), reshapes regional urban pattern, and enhances urban competitiveness. It can optimize urban economic structure, make cities more modern and innovative, and improve urban images, all of which promotes the competitiveness of HSR cities (UIC, 2011).…”

Section: Territorial Level Mechanism Of Hsr On Ulementioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of high-speed rail development on urban land expansion and utilization intensity in China

Ma²

2021

JTLU

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Urban land expansion (ULE) is a crucial factor for socioeconomic and environmentally sustainable development. However, nowadays, the unprecedented scale of high-speed railway (HSR) construction in China could exert an important influence on ULE. This manuscript first reveals the influence mechanism of HSR on ULE and then employs difference-in-difference (DID) models to investigate this effect based on the data of 280 prefectures and above level cities of 2001-2016. We analyze that HSR exerts a joint effect on ULE from the territorial and local levels and then affects urban land-use intensity (ULUI). HSR opening and HSR station distance both have notably positive effects on ULE, with elastic coefficients of 4.1% and 0.5%, respectively. HSR opening and HSR station distance also both exert positive effects on ULE of the central, eastern region cities and large cities of China, while for the western region and small to medium cities, they are not significant. The impact of HSR station distance on ULUI is negative with a significance level of 0.073, while the impact of HSR opening on ULUI is not significant. Lastly, relevant policy implications are proposed to alleviate urban land waste and spatial disequilibrium under the context of HSR building. This study can provide an important basis for sustainable urban land allocation.

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Inter-city connections in China: High-speed train vs. inter-city coach

Cited by 50 publications

References 45 publications

The Predictive Capacity of Air Travel Patterns during the Global Spread of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Risk, Uncertainty and Randomness

The Predictive Capacity of Air Travel Patterns during the Global Spread of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Risk, Uncertainty and Randomness

Exploring the roles of high-speed train, air and coach services in the spread of COVID-19 in China

Impacts of high-speed rail development on urban land expansion and utilization intensity in China

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