Inter-population synchrony in adult survival and effects of climate and extreme weather in non-breeding areas of Atlantic puffins

Abstract

Seabirds are undergoing drastic declines globally and spend the non-breeding season at sea, making it challenging to study the drivers of their survival. Harsh weather and changes in climate conditions can have large impacts on seabird population dynamics through increased mortality. The intensity and persistence of extreme events are forecasted to increase with global warming. As shared conditions can induce population synchrony, multi-population studies of key demographic parameters are imperative to explore the influence of climate change. We used long-term mark-recapture data and position data to determine non-breeding stop-over areas of 5 Atlantic puffin (Fratercula arctica) populations over a latitudinal gradient in the Northeast Atlantic (56°11’-70°23’N). We investigated synchrony in adult survival in relation to shared stop-over areas. We quantified effects of extreme extra-tropical cyclones (ETCs) specific to populations’ stop-over areas and the North Atlantic Oscillation on adult survival. Populations with overlapping stop-over areas exhibited temporal synchrony in survival rates. Winter ETCs negatively influenced survival in 1 population, which was the one most exposed to extreme weather, but did not directly influence adult survival in the other 4 populations. Synchrony among populations with shared stop-over areas highlights the importance of these areas for adult survival, a key life-history rate. However, extreme weather was not identified as a driving factor for the majority of study populations. This suggests other factors in these areas, likely related to bottom-up trophic interactions, as environmental drivers of synchrony in the survival of Atlantic puffins.

Variation and correlation in the timing of breeding of North Atlantic seabirds across multiple scales

“…European shags are partial migratory whereby a proportion of the population remain resident at the breeding colonies throughout the year, and most migrant individuals make shorter distance movements than the other study species (Grist et al, 2014; Moe et al, 2021), so may be more sensitive to local conditions, such as abundance of forage fish (Lorentsen et al, 2015) and have an unusually high capacity to adjust laying dates accordingly. While auk populations in our analysis do remain in the North Atlantic over winter and spring, many migrate to a variety of different areas (Fayet et al, 2017; Frederiksen et al, 2016), although it should be noted that synchronised survival in Atlantic puffin has been attributed to an overlap in non‐breeding grounds of some Norwegian populations used in this analysis (Reiertsen et al, 2021). This suggests that the conditions driving auk phenology are unlikely to be consistent for all populations.…”

Consequences of cross-season demographic correlations for population viability

“…Here, we studied three puffin populations in the North Atlantic: Isle of May National Nature Reserve (56deg11'N, 2deg34'W), Rost (67deg26'N, 11deg52'E) and Hornoya (70deg23'N, 31deg 09'E). To confirm the geographic separation of the three populations in the non-breeding season, distributions of the three populations were derived from tracking data using light-level loggers (geolocator sensors, GLS) deployed on birds in the years 2014-2019 (see Reiertsen et al 2021 for further methodological details). Across years, data for a total of 133, 204 and 149 individual non-breeding season tracks were retrieved from Hornoya, Rost, and Isle of May, respectively, from which the 50% kernels were produced (Fig.…”

Tracking the movements of North Atlantic seabirds: steps towards a better understanding of population dynamics and marine ecosystem conservation

“…The non-breeding season may also be characterized by harsh environmental conditions (e.g. Frederiksen et al 2008, Guéry et al 2019, Reiertsen et al 2021 in this Theme Section). Consequently, environmental conditions experienced during the non-breeding season are expected to have a strong influence on seabird populations.…”

“…Because adult survival rates have a strong influence on seabird population dynamics (Saether & Bakke 2000), these results support the key role played by environmental conditions during the non-breeding season in regulating seabird populations. Such a regulating role is apparent in Reiertsen et al (2021) and Reynolds et al (2011), who suggest that being ex posed to the same environmental conditions during the non-breeding season partly synchronizes inter-annual fluctuations in puffin or common guillemot survival.…”

“…Other important threats operate at sea, including extreme weather events (e.g. Reiertsen et al 2021), by-catch in fisheries (Anderson et al 2011, Žydelis et al 2013, Baerum et al 2019, direct competition with fisheries (Grémillet et al 2018), chronic and accidental oil pollution (Dunnet 1982, Votier et al 2005, Camphuysen 2010), habitat loss due to expanding marine industries and collision risk with offshore wind farms (Furness et al 2013). Improving the conservation status of seabirds would therefore require several targeted management measures, operating at different scales and involving different economic sectors and different levels of governance (Dias et al 2019).…”