Interacting municipal-level anthropogenic and ecological disturbances drive changes in Neotropical forest carbon storage

Abstract

Deforestation is a documented driver of biodiversity loss and ecosystem services in the tropics. However, less is known on how interacting regional and local-level anthropogenic and ecological disturbances such as land use activities, human populations, and armed conflict affect carbon storage and emissions in Neotropical forests. Therefore, we explored how local-scale, socio-ecological drivers affect carbon dynamics across space and time in a region in Colombia characterized by deforestation, land use cover (LULC) changes, and armed conflict. Specifically, using available municipal level data from a period of armed conflict (2009–2012), spatiotemporal analyses, and multivariate models, we analyzed the effects of a suite of socio-ecological drivers (e.g., armed conflict, illicit crops, human population, agriculture, etc.) on deforestation and carbon storage-emission dynamics. We found that about 0.4% of the initial forest cover area was converted to other LULC types, particularly pastures and crops. Gross C storage emissions were 4.14 Mt C, while gross carbon sequestration was 1.43 Mt C; primarily due to forest regeneration. We found that livestock ranching, illegal crop cultivation, and rural population were significant drivers of deforestation and carbon storage changes, while the influential role of armed conflict was less clear. However, temporal dynamics affected the magnitude of LULC effects and deforestation on carbon storage and emissions. The approach and findings can be used to better inform medium to long-term local and regional planning and decision-making related to forest conservation and ecosystem service policies in Neotropical forests experiencing disturbances related to global change and socio-political events like armed conflict.

Land Use and Land Cover Changes in Kabul, Afghanistan Focusing on the Drivers Impacting Urban Dynamics during Five Decades 1973–2020

“…From 2013 to 2020, the built-up area decreased to 23.84%, while barren rocky terrain increased from 22.89% to 29.97%. This trend may suggest land degradation and aligns with Toro et al [65] who argued that conflict and socioeconomic factors could drive land cover changes, impacting carbon storage and emissions also reported by Hendrix and Salehyan [66,67]. Examining these trends within the context of the ongoing armed conflict in Afghanistan offers deeper insights.…”

Returning Cropland to Grassland as a Potential Method for Increasing Carbon Storage in Dry-Hot Valley Areas

“…Climate change on a global scale is one of the most significant challenges human society has ever faced [1]. Controlling greenhouse gas emissions and achieving regional carbon neutrality has become the shared goal of countries around the world [2][3][4][5]. Global carbon cycling relies heavily on terrestrial ecosystems.…”

Impact of Land Use Change on Carbon Storage Based on FLUS-InVEST Model: A Case Study of Chengdu–Chongqing Urban Agglomeration, China

“…Although decreases in terrestrial carbon storage can increase atmospheric CO 2 content, its increase can effectively reduce atmospheric CO 2 content [5][6][7]. Therefore, regulation of the land use system is considered one of the most economically feasible and environmentally friendly strategies for controlling CO 2 emissions, and has consistently been the policy focus of global governance and the frontier hotspot of land science [8][9][10]. The carbon-fixation capacity of different types of land use is different, and the land use cover type will directly affect the carbon-balance mechanism of terrestrial ecosystems [11].…”