Interaction analysis on transmissibility of main pathogens of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Xi’an: a modelling study

Abstract

Objectives: Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is a new infectious disease that has attracted much attention at home and abroad, and it spreads widely. In this study, we aimed to explore the interaction between the main pathogens of HFMD through the model of transmission dynamics.Method: The database of HFMD in Xi'an City was established and the main pathogens (EV71, CoxA16, other enteroviruses) were monitored for a long time. In the study, we defined the ascending period of reported cases as Rasc, and the descending period as Rdes, and calculated the regeneration number of the two periods using susceptible–infectious–recovered model.Results: In Xi’an City, Rasc and Rdes of HFMD was 1.39 (95% CI: 1.31 – 1.48) and 0.70 (95% CI: 0.65 – 0.74), respectively. CoxA16 and other enteroviruses interacted with each other and decreased the value of Rasc. However, Rdes of CoxA16 was increased by other enteroviruses directionally. However, during the reported cases decreasing period, interactions only occurred between EV71 and other enteroviruses and between CoxA16 and other enteroviruses. These interactions all decreased Rasc but increased Rdes of affected pathogens.Conclusions: There is interaction among pathogens of HFMD in Xi'an City. The reproduction number of pathogens increased or decreased to a certain extent after interaction, and finally approached 1.