Interannual relationship between South Pacific meridional sea surface temperature dipole and rainfall anomalies over South China in late-spring to early-summer without ENSO impact

Jin, Dachao; Wang, Xudong; Zhang, Yu; Chen, Sheng; Yang, Xiu‐Qun; Zhu, Junying

doi:10.1007/s00382-023-06852-1

Cited by 1 publication

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“…Rainfall in MJ accounts for nearly a third of annual rainfall and has large interannual variability (figure S1), and extensive studies have investigated the physical processes and mechanisms of the MJ rainfall interannual variations (Gu et al 2018, Sun et al 2018, Peng et al 2021, Gao and Li 2023, Jin et al 2023, Li et al 2024. Previous studies have revealed that SST anomalies over the Pacific, Atlantic Ocean and Maritime Continent could exert influences on the MJ rainfall (Li et al 2018, Liu and Zhu 2021, Jin et al 2023. So far, many dynamical forecast systems and empirical regression models have been built to predict the MJ rainfall with moderate skills (Yim et al 2014, Zhao and Yang 2014, Xing et al 2017, Xing and Huang 2019, Martin et al 2020, Li et al 2023a.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Interdecadal change in the relationship between the South China late rainy season rainfall and equatorial Pacific SSTs

Tang,

Zhang,

Luo

2024

Environ. Res. Lett.

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The South China (SC) late rainy season rainfall (SCLR) is important to people’s livelihoods and properties of this densely populated and economically developed region. Based on observation and reanalysis datasets, this study identifies that the relationship between the SCLR and equatorial Pacific SSTs (EPSSTs) experiences an interdecadal change around the late 1970s. The SCLR is negatively correlated with the eastern EPSSTs during 1948–1977 (the previous epoch) but positively correlated with the central EPSSTs during 1978–2022, especially during the last three decades 1993–2022 (the post epoch). This is due to the interdecadal change in El Niño flavors and EPSSTs-tropical Atlantic SSTs (TASSTs) relationship. With the increasing frequency of central Pacific El Niños in the post epoch, the El Niño-related warm SST anomaly center shifts from the eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) to the central equatorial Pacific (CEP). Correspondingly, the anomalous cyclone exerted by the CEP warming reaches SC and causes rainfall surplus there (westward propagation pathway). In contrast, the EEP warming in the previous epoch can’t influence the SCLR through the westward propagation pathway, but through shifting the westerly jet southward via heating the tropical troposphere. The southward shifted westerly jet crashes the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, triggering cyclonic circulations across the northern East Asia and North Pacific, which in turn cause anticyclonic circulations over the western SC and reduce SC rainfall (eastward propagation pathway). On the other hand, the CEP warming in the post epoch barely influence the SCLR through the eastward propagation pathway because of the enhanced negative relationship between EPSSTs and TASSTs.

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