Interannual Sea Level Variability Along the Southeastern Seaboard of the United States in Relation to the Gyre‐Scale Heat Divergence in the North Atlantic

Volkov, Denis; Lee, Sang Ki; Domingues, Ricardo; Zhang, Hong; Góes, Marlos

doi:10.1029/2019gl083596

Cited by 50 publications

(72 citation statements)

References 81 publications

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“…The NAO related sea level (Fig. 3c ) resembles the dominant tripole pattern of sea-level variability in the North Atlantic during the satellite altimetry period 34 . The goodness of fit of the MVLR analyse can be evaluated by the ratio of variance explained by the regression over the total variance of sea level at each location (R 2 ; Supplementary Fig.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 76%

Reconciling global mean and regional sea level change in projections and observations

et al. 2021

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The ability of climate models to simulate 20th century global mean sea level (GMSL) and regional sea-level change has been demonstrated. However, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) and Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC) sea-level projections have not been rigorously evaluated with observed GMSL and coastal sea level from a global network of tide gauges as the short overlapping period (2007–2018) and natural variability make the detection of trends and accelerations challenging. Here, we critically evaluate these projections with satellite and tide-gauge observations. The observed trends from GMSL and the regional weighted mean at tide-gauge stations confirm the projections under three Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios within 90% confidence level during 2007–2018. The central values of the observed GMSL (1993–2018) and regional weighted mean (1970–2018) accelerations are larger than projections for RCP2.6 and lie between (or even above) those for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 over 2007–2032, but are not yet statistically different from any scenario. While the confirmation of the projection trends gives us confidence in current understanding of near future sea-level change, it leaves open questions concerning late 21st century non-linear accelerations from ice-sheet contributions.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 76%

Reconciling global mean and regional sea level change in projections and observations

et al. 2021

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“…where « includes effects of geoid and rotational feedback (e.g., Milne and Mitrovica 1998;Mound and Mitrovica 1998;Mitrovica et al 2001;Tamisiea et al 2001;Peltier 2004). For dh ASL /dt, in addition to a global long-term rise due to, for example, seawater expansion and addition of ocean water mass by land-ice and glacier melting because of ocean warming, it can be generalized to locally also include changes caused by ocean dynamics at interannual and interdecadal time scales (Merrifield and Maltrud 2011;Goddard et al 2015;Swapna et al 2017;Domingues et al 2018;Volkov et al 2019). We use absolute sea level data (from https://www.aviso.altimetry.fr/en/data.html) and relative sea level from tide gauge data provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends.html) and the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (https:// www.psmsl.org/) at coastal stations around the globe.…”

Section: The Inverse Wave Agementioning

confidence: 99%

Global Trends of Sea Surface Gravity Wave, Wind, and Coastal Wave Setup

Lin

Oey

2020

Journal of Climate

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Assessing trends of sea surface wave, wind, and coastal wave setup is of considerable scientific and practical importance in view of recent and projected long-term sea level rise due to global warming. Here we analyze global significant wave height (SWH) and wind data from 1993 to 2015 and a wave model to (i) calculate wave age and explain the causal, or the lack thereof, relationship between wave and wind trends; and (ii) estimate trends of coastal wave setup and its contributions to secular trends of relative sea level at coastal locations around the world. We show in-phase, increasing SWH and wind trends in regions dominated by younger waves, and decreasing SWH trends where older waves dominate and are unrelated to the local wind trends. In the central North Pacific where wave age is transitional, in-phase decreasing wave and wind trends are found over the west-northwestern region, but wave and wind trends are insignificantly correlated in the south-southeastern region; here, a reversed, upward momentum flux from wave to wind is postulated. We show that coastal wave setup depends primarily on open-ocean SWH but only weakly on wind, varying approximately like SWH/(wind speed)1/5. The wave-setup trends are shown to be increasing along many coastlines where the local relative sea level trends are also increasing: the North and Irish Seas, Mediterranean Sea, East and South Asian seas, and eastern United States, exacerbating the potential for increased floods along these populated coastlines.

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“…This is an additional distinction between the Atlantic and Pacific, as no coherence change of such magnitude was observed between the Oyashio and West of Kii groupings in the Pacific. sea level with other plausible drivers, including the ocean temperature within the western boundary current vicinity (Kuroda et al, 2010;Domingues et al, 2018) and the subtropical gyre interior sea surface height (Woodworth et al, 2014;Thompson and Mitchum, 2014;Volkov et al, 2019). It would be interesting to know what are the statistical and causal relationships between these proposed drivers of the sea level and the shifts of the extensions of the western boundary currents.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Western boundary circulation and coastal sea-level variability in northern hemisphere oceans

Diabaté¹,

Swingedouw²,

Hirschi³

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Abstract. The northwest basins of the Atlantic and Pacific oceans are regions of intense Western Boundary Currents (WBC), the Gulf Stream and the Kuroshio. The variability of these poleward currents and their extension in the open ocean is of major importance to the climate system. It is largely dominated by in-phase meridional shifts downstream of the points where they separate from the coast. Tide gauges on the adjacent coastlines have measured the inshore sea level for many decades and provide a unique window on the past of the oceanic circulation. The relationship between coastal sea level and the variability of the western boundary currents has been previously studied in each basin separately but comparison between the two basins is missing. Here we show for each basin, that the inshore sea level upstream the separation points is in sustained agreement with the meridional shifts of the western boundary current extension over the period studied, i.e. the past seven (five) decades in the Atlantic (Pacific). Decomposition of the coastal sea level into principal components allows us to discriminate this variability in the upstream sea level from other sources of variability such as the influence of large meanders in the Pacific. This result suggests that prediction of inshore sea-level changes could be improved by the inclusion of meridional shifts of the western boundary current extensions as predictors. Conversely, long duration tide gauges, such as Key West, Fernandina Beach or Hosojima could be used as proxies for the past meridional shifts of the western boundary current extensions.

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Interannual Sea Level Variability Along the Southeastern Seaboard of the United States in Relation to the Gyre‐Scale Heat Divergence in the North Atlantic

Cited by 50 publications

References 81 publications

Reconciling global mean and regional sea level change in projections and observations

Reconciling global mean and regional sea level change in projections and observations

Global Trends of Sea Surface Gravity Wave, Wind, and Coastal Wave Setup

Western boundary circulation and coastal sea-level variability in northern hemisphere oceans

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