Interannual to decadal variability in the catches of small pelagic fishes from China Seas and its responses to climatic regime shifts

Ma, Shouxiang; Jia-hua, Cheng; Li, Jianchao; Liu, Yang; Wu, Rong; Tian, Yongjun

doi:10.1016/j.dsr2.2018.10.005

Cited by 54 publications

(41 citation statements)

References 62 publications

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“…This improvement in significance may be due to the 2-7-year dominant periodicity of the ENSO cycle (Cane, 2005), which was almost coherent with the periodicity of the short cycle of landings. Kripa et al (2018) postulated the warming in the Indian Ocean induced by El Niño short time interval (Fiedler, 2002;Ma et al, 2019). In general, the present results indicate that the climate indices such as PDO and AMO may influence the landings of oil sardine on a long-term basis and ENSO may have a short-term effect on this species.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 52%

Climate impacts on the landings of Indian oil sardine over the south‐eastern Arabian Sea

et al. 2020

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The landings of Indian oil sardine (Sardinella longiceps, Clupeidae) along the southeastern Arabian Sea are about 43.8% of total Indian oil sardine production. The annual landings of this species exhibit large-scale variability with prolonged years of surplus or deficit landings without identified reason. Evaluating Indian oil sardine landings along the Kerala coast during 1961-2017 in relation to environmental variations, we have elucidated a putative link between variability in landings versus environmental parameters and climate indices. The variables examined in this study, such as salinity and temperature along with physical indices such as upwelling and mixed layer depth (MLD) of the ocean help to propose a mechanism to temporal variability in the landings of Indian oil sardine. Colder temperature and timely intense upwelling lead to nutrient enrichment in the surface water, which promotes the growth of phytoplankton (chl-a) and thereby food availability to Indian oil sardine are found during years with surplus catch. Less saline surface waters and shoaling of MLD at these times could lead to the aggregation of fish at particular depths and thereby a good catches. The reverse mechanism, such as more surface saline water, warm temperature, downwelling or weak upwelling, and less nutrient enrichment, leads to deficit landings. Further, it was noticed that the Pacific decadal oscillation and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation have a more pronounced impact on Indian oil sardine landings over the coast of southeastern Arabian Sea than previously reported ENSO associated impacts. All these point towards climate change implications for the Indian oil sardine fishery.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 52%

Climate impacts on the landings of Indian oil sardine over the south‐eastern Arabian Sea

et al. 2020

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“…Numerous studies highlight the effects of the AOI and MOI on the winter SST field in the northwestern North Pacific, especially in the East China Continental Shelf Sea and Sea of Japan (Ma, Cheng, et al, 2019;Tian, Uchikawa, Ueda, & Cheng, 2014 Lorenzo et al, 2008;Newman et al, 2016;Overland, Rodionov, Minobe, & Bond, 2008). However, they show little correlation with the winter SST field in the northwestern North Pacific, which may indicate their weak effects on biological variability in this region.…”

Section: Climate Effects On the Sst Fieldsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate‐induced nonlinearity in pelagic communities and non‐stationary relationships with physical drivers in the Kuroshio ecosystem

Tian

et al. 2020

Fish and Fisheries

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Climate-induced nonlinearity in biological variability and non-stationary relationships with physical drivers are crucial to understand responses of marine organisms to climate variability. These phenomena have raised concerns in the northeastern North Pacific, but are out of the spotlight in the northwestern North Pacific in spite of potential implications for this productive system under increased climate variability. Pelagic communities in the Kuroshio ecosystem have both ecological and economic importance. However, patterns of climate-induced nonlinearity in pelagic communities are not well understood, and existence of non-stationarity in their relationships with physical drivers remains obscure. Here, we compile large numbers of climatic, oceanic and biological long-term time-series data and employ diverse statistical techniques to reveal such climate-induced nonlinearity and non-stationarity. Results show that pelagic communities in the Tsushima and Pacific areas (major areas in the Kuroshio ecosystem) had regime shifts in the late 1990s and late 1980s, respectively. Winter sea surface temperatures in the Kuroshio Current path and in the eastern part of East China Sea, which are respectively affected by the Kuroshio Current and Siberian High, correlate with dominant variability patterns in their pelagic communities. Furthermore, non-stationarity was identified with threshold years in the 1990s in the Tsushima area and in the 1980s in the Pacific area as a possible result of the declined variances in the Siberian High and Aleutian Low, respectively. Our findings provide insights on spatial differentiation of climate-induced nonlinearity and nonstationarity, which are valuable for the management of pelagic communities in the northwestern North Pacific under changing climatic conditions. K E Y W O R D S climate variability, ecological threshold, Kuroshio Current, non-stationary relationship, pelagic species, regime shift 7 3.4 Non-stationarity in community-environment relationships 7 4 DISCUSSION 9 4.1 Similarity and difference between the variability patterns 9 4.2 SST effects on pelagic communities 11 4.3 Climate effects on the SST fields 11 4.4 Climate-induced non-stationarity and its implications for fisheries management 12 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 13

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“…For instance, European anchovy in the northern British waters is expected to shift northward in response to climate change (Pinnegar et al, 2017). In the China seas, Japanese anchovy is also highly susceptible to climate change (Ma et al, 2019a). One of the climate phenomena that impacts fish resources is the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is a coupled atmosphere-ocean variability in the tropical Pacific Ocean.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Climate Change on Wintering Ground of Japanese Anchovy (Engraulis japonicus) Using Marine Geospatial Statistics

Liu

Alabia

et al. 2020

Front. Mar. Sci.

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The distribution and fluctuations in abundance of small pelagic species such as anchovy are largely affected by climate change. We hypothesized that the future projected rise in temperature will result to a northward shift of Japanese anchovy (Engraulis japonicus) habitat and a subsequent increase in relative abundance. To test this hypothesis, we explored the link between Japanese anchovy abundance and environmental conditions using machine-learning and statistical models. The models were fitted with catch per unit effort (CPUE) as the response variable and remotely sensed data of sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface chlorophyll-a (Chl-a), assimilated information of sea surface salinity (SSS), meridional and zonal ocean currents, and depth as environmental covariates. Our results showed that the abundance of E. japonicus was significantly influenced by environmental factors. In particular, salinity front and SST highlight strong relationships with winter CPUE distribution. Based on these models, the results reinforced our hypothesis and showed that the warming ocean will drive a substantial shift in Japanese anchovy habitat in the China seas. SST and CPUE showed negative correlations with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index. These findings underpin ramifications of the climate-driven habitat shift of small pelagic fish species on the regional marine ecosystem in the China seas.

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Interannual to decadal variability in the catches of small pelagic fishes from China Seas and its responses to climatic regime shifts

Cited by 54 publications

References 62 publications

Climate impacts on the landings of Indian oil sardine over the south‐eastern Arabian Sea

Climate impacts on the landings of Indian oil sardine over the south‐eastern Arabian Sea

Climate‐induced nonlinearity in pelagic communities and non‐stationary relationships with physical drivers in the Kuroshio ecosystem

Impact of Climate Change on Wintering Ground of Japanese Anchovy (Engraulis japonicus) Using Marine Geospatial Statistics

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