Interannual Variability of Northwest Australian Tropical Cyclones

Goebbert, Kevin H.; Leslie, Lance M.

doi:10.1175/2010jcli3362.1

Cited by 36 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 51 publications

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“…These predictors might reflect the atmospheric conditions associated with ENSO as well as other climatic oscillations and therefore are the good predictors for the TC activity in the Australian region. Other than ENSO‐related predictors, Goebbert et al (2010) found a set of NCEP‐NCAR reanalysis fields for the seasonal prediction of the northwest Australian (0°–35°S, 105°–135°E) TC frequency and obtained a fairly high skill over climatology. The predictors used in this study included the May–Jul 850‐hPa geopotential heights over the south Indian Ocean, the Apr–Jun 700‐hPa geopotential heights over Central North American, the May‐Jul 850‐hPa air temperatures over the central North Pacific and the Jun–Aug 925‐hPa geopotential heights over the southern Atlantic Ocean and the eastern Pacific Ocean.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Flay and Nott (2007) also developed a statistical model for the prediction of TC landfalls in Queensland using the SOI. More recently, Goebbert et al (2010) proposed a prediction scheme for the northwest Australian TC frequency based on a set of NCEP‐NCAR reanalysis fields (geopotential height, air temperature, and components of wind) which are highly correlated with TC frequency.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Interannual variation of Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone activity and seasonal forecast of tropical cyclone number in the Australian region

Liu

Chan

2010

Intl Journal of Climatology

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This study examines the interannual variability of the tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) during the period 1970-2008. An empirical orthogonal function analysis of the annual frequency of TC occurrence shows three leading modes of TC occurrence patterns. The first mode, which is related to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, shows an east-west oscillation between the anomalous TC activity over the South Pacific and the southern Indian Ocean. The second mode, characterised by an east-west dipole of anomalous TC activity over the southern Indian Ocean, is apparently related to both ENSO and the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD). The third is a basin-wide mode that represents the overall TC activity in the SH.Within the SH, TC activity in the Australian region is found to be related to ENSO and IOD, with the relation being more prominent for the western Australian region. Basing on the ENSO-and IOD-related predictors such as Niño-4 SST anomaly, trade wind index, outgoing longwave radiation index and dipole-mode index, a statistical prediction scheme for the annual number of TCs in the entire Australian region (40°S-0°N, 90°E-160°E), the western Australian region (40°S-0°N, 90°E-135°E) and the eastern Australian region (40°S-0°N, 135°E-160°E) by 1 November is proposed. This scheme gives a 51, 39 and 37% skill improvement in root-mean-square error relative to climatology for the three regions respectively.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Interannual variation of Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone activity and seasonal forecast of tropical cyclone number in the Australian region

Liu

Chan

2010

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…For the northwest Australian region (0°-35°S, 105°-135°E), the annual mean tropical cyclone occurrence is 5.6 (standard deviation of 2.3; Goebbert and Leslie 2010). The mean number of tropical cyclone landfalls in the same region is 1.5 (out of 4.9 for all Australian coastlines; Dare and Davidson 2004).…”

Section: Data and Model Configurationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rainfall distribution of five landfalling tropical cyclones in the northwestern Australian region

Li¹,

Cheung²,

Chan³

et al. 2013

AMOJ

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Rain gauge data, satellite IR brightness temperature and radar-estimated rain rate for five tropical cyclones from the 2005-06 to 2009-10 seasons that made landfall along the northwestern coast of Australia are analysed. It is the first time that the spatial rainfall distribution of landfalling tropical cyclones in the southern hemisphere has been systematically investigated. It is found that the distributions of rainfall are more concentrated in the right side of the track of the landfall tropical cyclones, which is the offshore flow position. Potential mechanisms responsible for this observed asymmetry in rainfall distribution are discussed. These include the tropical cyclone motion direction, deep-tropospheric vertical wind shear and land-sea contrast in surface properties. Topography is considered to have less effect since Western Australia is relatively flat. The rainfall maxima are found in the front and downshear quadrants for these tropical cyclones, which is consistent with previous studies. The changes in vertical wind shear when these tropical cyclones moved to the south are largely attributed to the prevailing environmental flow. Three numerical simulations are performed; one with a realistic land surface, one with all topography removed and one with all land removed. These simulations show that the land surface effects play an important role in determining the asymmetry in rainfall distribution, which explains why in some cases the observed maximum rainfall does not follow closely the vertical wind shear direction when making landfall.

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“…However, strong interannual variability in TC activity occurs around this trend, and Nicholls et al (1996) showed evidence of a strong statistical link between these interannual fluctuations of TC numbers in the Australian region and the Southern Oscillation, as well as the sea surface temperature (SST) in the northern Australian region. Goebbert and Leslie (2010) investigated the influence of ENSO on TC activity in the eastern region of the south Indian Ocean with a view toward developing seasonal prediction schemes.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tropical Cyclone Climatology of the South Pacific Ocean and Its Relationship to El Niño–Southern Oscillation

Dowdy

Jones

et al. 2012

Journal of Climate

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Climatological features of tropical cyclones in the South Pacific Ocean have been analyzed based on a new archive for the Southern Hemisphere. A vortex tracking and statistics package is used to examine features such as climatological maps of system intensity and the change in intensity with time, average tropical cyclone system movement, and system density. An examination is presented of the spatial variability of these features, as well as changes in relation to phase changes of the El Niñ o-Southern Oscillation phenomenon. A critical line is defined in this study based on maps of cyclone intensity to describe the statistical geographic boundary for cyclone intensification. During El Niñ o events, the critical line shifts equatorward, while during La Niñ a events the critical line is generally displaced poleward. Regional variability in tropical cyclone activity associated with El Niñ o-Southern Oscillation phases is examined in relation to the variability of large-scale atmospheric or oceanic variables associated with tropical cyclone activity. Maps of the difference fields between different phases of El Niñ o-Southern Oscillation are examined for sea surface temperature, vertical wind shear, lower-tropospheric vorticity, and midtropospheric relative humidity. Results are also examined in relation to the South Pacific convergence zone. The common region where each of the large-scale variables showed favorable conditions for cyclogenesis coincided with the location of maximum observed cyclogenesis for El Niñ o events as well as for La Niñ a years.

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Interannual Variability of Northwest Australian Tropical Cyclones

Cited by 36 publications

References 51 publications

Interannual variation of Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone activity and seasonal forecast of tropical cyclone number in the Australian region

Interannual variation of Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone activity and seasonal forecast of tropical cyclone number in the Australian region

Rainfall distribution of five landfalling tropical cyclones in the northwestern Australian region

Tropical Cyclone Climatology of the South Pacific Ocean and Its Relationship to El Niño–Southern Oscillation

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