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Aim. To identify noninvasive markers of atrial electrical dysfunction and risk of nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (AF) and to develop a predictive mathematical model to estimate the AF risk based on electrocardiographic (ECG) P-wave parameters during sinus rhythm.Methods. The study included 211 patients with cardiovascular pathology (aged median 62 [52; 71] years, 67.8% male, NYHA heart failure class I-III). All patients (follow-up median 45 [26; 67] months) underwent a complex of studies: 12-lead ECG, echocardiography, 24-hour ECG monitoring. Based on surface ECG data during sinus rhythm, parameters of atrial electrical activation were assessed such as Morphology, Voltage and P waves duration (MVP) according to integral analysis by MVP score.Results. During 3.7-year period, 44 (20.8%) patients experienced new-onset sustained AF and 12 (5.69%) patients developed ischemic stroke. As a result of ROC analysis and univariate Cox regression, independent predictors of AF were identified: P-wave prolongation in the DII lead, 3rd degree or advanced interatrial block (aIAB), an increase P-wave terminal force in lead V1 (PTFV1), low-voltage P-wave in the DI lead and сalculated level of abnormal P-wave ≥3 points on the MVP score. Data from multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis confirmed the prognostic significance for three independent predictors of AF: aIAB (hazard ratio (HR) 5.92; 95% confidence interval (CI) [2.48-4.12]; p=0.0001); PTFV1 (HR 1.14; 95% CI [1.04-1.24], p=0.003); low-voltage P-wave in lead DI <0.1 mV (HR 1.03; 95% CI [1.02-1.05]; p=0.0001); and as a result a mathematical model was created to predict AF risk (-2LL =258; χ2=105; p=0.0001). Predictors such as PTFV1 (HR 1.41; 95% CI [1.17-1.72], p=0.0001) and MVP score of abnormal P-waves (HR 1.85; 95% CI [1.27-1.72] 2.70], p=0.001) were associated with a high risk of stroke according to Cox regression model (-2LL= 62.5; χ2=38.4; p <0.001).Conclusion. Complex of ECG markers of atrial electrical dysfunction such as aIAB, PTFV1, level MVP score of abnormal P-wave and low P-wave voltage allows identifying patients at high risk of AF and ischemic stroke.
Aim. To identify noninvasive markers of atrial electrical dysfunction and risk of nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (AF) and to develop a predictive mathematical model to estimate the AF risk based on electrocardiographic (ECG) P-wave parameters during sinus rhythm.Methods. The study included 211 patients with cardiovascular pathology (aged median 62 [52; 71] years, 67.8% male, NYHA heart failure class I-III). All patients (follow-up median 45 [26; 67] months) underwent a complex of studies: 12-lead ECG, echocardiography, 24-hour ECG monitoring. Based on surface ECG data during sinus rhythm, parameters of atrial electrical activation were assessed such as Morphology, Voltage and P waves duration (MVP) according to integral analysis by MVP score.Results. During 3.7-year period, 44 (20.8%) patients experienced new-onset sustained AF and 12 (5.69%) patients developed ischemic stroke. As a result of ROC analysis and univariate Cox regression, independent predictors of AF were identified: P-wave prolongation in the DII lead, 3rd degree or advanced interatrial block (aIAB), an increase P-wave terminal force in lead V1 (PTFV1), low-voltage P-wave in the DI lead and сalculated level of abnormal P-wave ≥3 points on the MVP score. Data from multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis confirmed the prognostic significance for three independent predictors of AF: aIAB (hazard ratio (HR) 5.92; 95% confidence interval (CI) [2.48-4.12]; p=0.0001); PTFV1 (HR 1.14; 95% CI [1.04-1.24], p=0.003); low-voltage P-wave in lead DI <0.1 mV (HR 1.03; 95% CI [1.02-1.05]; p=0.0001); and as a result a mathematical model was created to predict AF risk (-2LL =258; χ2=105; p=0.0001). Predictors such as PTFV1 (HR 1.41; 95% CI [1.17-1.72], p=0.0001) and MVP score of abnormal P-waves (HR 1.85; 95% CI [1.27-1.72] 2.70], p=0.001) were associated with a high risk of stroke according to Cox regression model (-2LL= 62.5; χ2=38.4; p <0.001).Conclusion. Complex of ECG markers of atrial electrical dysfunction such as aIAB, PTFV1, level MVP score of abnormal P-wave and low P-wave voltage allows identifying patients at high risk of AF and ischemic stroke.
Тюменский кардиологический научный центр, Томский национальный исследовательский медицинский центр Российской академии наук, Томск, Россия Цель. Изучить клинические и эхокардиографические показатели, ассоциирующиеся с тромбообразованием ушка левого предсердия (УЛП), и выявить независимые предикторы тромбоза УЛП у пациентов с неклапанной фибрилляцией предсердий (ФП) перед планируемой катетерной аблацией (КА) или кардиоверсией. Материал и методы. Выполнен ретроспективный анализ данных 638 пациентов с неклапанной ФП, направленных на госпитализацию с 2014 по 2017 гг для проведения КА или кардиоверсии. Всем больным проводилось клинико-инструментальное обследование, в том числе трансторакальная и чреспищеводная эхокардиографии (ЧпЭхоКГ). Результаты. По данным ЧпЭхоКГ пациенты были разделены на 2 группы: группа 1-44 больных (7%) с наличием тромбоза УЛП и группа 2-594 (93%) без признаков тромбоза УЛП. Пациенты группы 1 имели более высокий риск по шкале CHA 2 DS 2-VASc, у них чаще встречались: ишемическая болезнь сердца, артериальная гипертония, хроническая сердечная недостаточность стадии IIA, ожирение ≥II степени, персистирующая форма ФП. Пациенты обеих групп не различались по приему антикоагулянтной терапии. У пациентов с тромбозом УЛП отмечались больший диаметр левого предсердия и правого желудочка, больший объем правого предсердия, конечно-систолический и конечно-диастолический диаметры левого желудочка (ЛЖ), у них наблюдались более высокий индекс массы миокарда ЛЖ, более низкие значения фракции выброса ЛЖ и скорости кровотока в УЛП. С помощью логистической регрессии были выявлены такие независимые предикторы тромбоза УЛП, как наличие выраженного ожирения ≥II степени (ОШ 2,75; 95% ДИ 1,33-5,68; p=0,006), персистирующая форма ФП (ОШ 2,31; 95% ДИ 1,07-4,99; p=0,033), увеличение диаметра левого предсердия (ОШ 1,13; 95% ДИ 1,03-1,24; p=0,009), наличие эксцентрической гипертрофии ЛЖ (ОШ 3,13; 95% ДИ 1,04-9,40; p=0,042). Заключение. Таким образом, в нашем исследовании были определены независимые предикторы развития тромбоза УЛП у пациентов с неклапанной ФП, включающие клинические факторы (ожирение и персистирующая форма ФП) и эхокардиографические параметры (диаметр левого предсердия и эксцентрическая гипертрофия). Ключевые слова: тромбоз ушка левого предсердия; фибрилляция предсердий; чреспищеводная эхокардиография Конфликт интересов: все авторы заявляют об отсутствии конфликта интересов.
The results of examination and treatment of a patient with a combination of accelerated idioventricular rhythm and atrial conduction disorder, which made it difficult to interpret the Holter monitoring data, are presented.
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