Interdecadal Change of Tropical Cyclone Translation Speed during Peak Season in South China Sea: Observed Evidence, Model Results, and Possible Mechanism

Shan, Kaiyue; Chu, Pao-Shin; Yu, Xiping

doi:10.1175/jcli-d-22-0704.1

Cited by 6 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…When the PDO is in the warm phase, the east Pacific SST is warm and the west Pacific SST is cold; the probability of the tropical cyclone genesis regions being controlled by the subtropical high and its downdrafts is high, and thus, not conducive to the development of typhoons. The above further verifies the more recent finding by Shan et al that interdecadal variation in the movement speed of typhoons in the South China Sea is related to variations in the steering airflow driven by the east-west SST gradient [51]. The abnormal mode of the Pacific SST is closely related to the cross-equatorial airflow.…”

Section: Sst and Subtropical Highsupporting

confidence: 88%

The Relationship between the Typhoons Affecting South China and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation

Qin,

Cai,

2024

Atmosphere

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Using typhoon data from the Shanghai Typhoon Institute of the China Meteorological Administration, the Japan Meteorological Agency’s annual Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) index, and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data from 1951 to 2021, correlation and composite analyses were carried out to study the relationship between the variability among tropical cyclones of different magnitudes affecting South China and the PDO. The results show that there is an obvious out-of-phase relationship between the proportion of tropical cyclones reaching a typhoon-level intensity or above in South China and the PDO index. When the PDO is in a cold (warm) phase, the sea surface temperature in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific is cold (warm), similar to the eastern Pacific La Niña (El Niño) phenomenon, and the SST in the eastern and western tropical Pacific Ocean shows a negative (positive) gradient; the subtropical high in the western Pacific Ocean is weaker (stronger) than normal, with the western ridge point to the east (west), and the 500 hPa geopotential height in the South China Sea and the area east of the Philippines is weaker (stronger), which is conducive to (unfavorable to) the formation of a monsoon trough; and the westerly (easterly) winds at high altitudes and the southwesterly (northeasterly) winds at low altitudes from the South China Sea to the Philippines are abnormally strong, and a positive (negative) vorticity at low altitudes, a low (high) sea level pressure, and strong (weak) convection are shown. These conditions are favorable (unfavorable) for the intensification of typhoons affecting South China, and as a result, the number of tropical cyclones reaching the level of typhoons or above account for a greater (smaller) proportion of those affecting South China.

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Section: Sst and Subtropical Highsupporting

confidence: 88%

The Relationship between the Typhoons Affecting South China and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation

Qin,

Cai,

2024

Atmosphere

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“…Previous studies have investigated the long-term changes in the intensity and PDI of TCs that have made landfall in southern China. Some studies have found no significant trends in the intensity or PDI [19,70], while Liu and Chan [8,18] studied the destructive power of TCs when they made landfall in southern China and found that the destructive power during landfall was lower than at other times during the period from 1997 to 2011. The factors that regulate the interdecadal changes in the destructive power of TCs when they make landfall are changes in vertical wind shear and ocean thermal potential [8,18,71].…”

Section: Significance and Innovation Of This Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This decrease in intensity has been attributed to the vertical moisture transport. Recent research has also focused on the movement speed of TCs in the SCS and has found that the movement speed was lower during the period from the early 1990s to the early 2000s compared to other periods [18].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Regime Shifts in the Damage Caused by Tropical Cyclones in the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area of China

Zheng,

Mu,

et al. 2023

JMSE

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Tropical cyclones (TCs) pose a significant threat in terms of wind-induced damage and storm risk to the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) of China. In this research, annual power dissipation index (PDI) and storm surge and wave destructive potential (SDP) index from June to November were used to estimate the damage caused by the TC events in the buffer zone of the GBA. The regime shifts in 1993 and 2013 were identified through the Bayesian changepoint detection in six TC datasets. The TC-induced damage during 1994–2012 (the low-damage period) was weaker than that in 1977–1993 and 2013–2020 (the high-damage periods). The intensity and size of stronger TCs are the dominant factors responsible for the interdecadal changes in the TC damage. This may be explained by the influences of sea surface temperature (SST), surface latent heat flux and mid-level relative humidity. During high-damage periods, TCs can extract more energy from the ocean, leading to increased TC intensity and larger size. Conversely, during low-damage periods, TCs undergo a decrease in energy intake, resulting in reduced TC power and smaller size. The variations in the SST are relative to the Luzon Strait transport. In addition, the reduction in TC translation speed is unfavorable for the development of TCs in low-damage periods. Further research suggested that mid-level steering flow affects the TC movement velocity. The results offer valuable insights into the variations in the TC-induced damage in the GBA.

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“…The MT migrates northward during summer and displaces southward during fall (Chen et al, 2017). TC activity is normally investigated for its salient feature in the peak JAS season (Lai et al, 2022(Lai et al, , 2023Shan & Yu, 2023) or its gross feature in the broader JJASO period (Chu et al, 2010;Tu et al, 2009). In the former approach, variability features of TC activity may be further compared between the peak JAS and post-peak October-December (OND) seasons (Feng et al, 2021;Shan & Yu, 2021).…”

Section: Interdecadal Variability Of Meridional Tc Genesis In the Wnpmentioning

confidence: 99%

Interdecadal variability of meridional tropical cyclone genesis over the western North Pacific and associated modulating processes

Tu,

Chen,

Tan

et al. 2023

Intl Journal of Climatology

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During the period 1970–2020, evident interdecadal variability of meridional tropical cyclone (TC) genesis occurs in the western North Pacific (WNP) from September through October (SO). From the periods 1970–1996 (IP1) to 1998–2020 (IP2), TC genesis during SO is enhanced (suppressed) in the region north (south) of 20°N. The large‐scale modulating processes feature a general warming of sea surface temperature (SST) over the WNP and systematic northward displacement in atmospheric circulations. The northward‐shifted Pacific subtropical high and monsoon trough result in an anomalous anticyclone across the subtropical region and an anomalous cyclone across the South China Sea and the northern WNP east of Taiwan. This anomalous cyclone facilitates TC genesis to increase in the northern WNP. Meanwhile, the southeastward‐extending monsoon trough retreats northwestward, leading to an anomalous anticyclone over the tropical eastern WNP and a decrease in TC genesis over the southern region. Correlation analyses indicate that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is more effective than global warming in modulating interdecadal increases of TC genesis in the northern region due to inclusions of both trend and oscillation features. Interdecadal decreases of TC genesis in the southern region exhibit a major oscillation feature and are thus mainly affected by interdecadal oscillation components of PDO. More TCs forming in the oceans east of Taiwan are steered by the overlying anomalous cyclone to recurve northward toward oceans to the northeast and north of Taiwan. TC‐induced rainfall over Taiwan thus increases by 25% from IP1 to IP2, which accounts for about 82% of increased total rainfall in Taiwan, showing the notable impact of interdecadal TC genesis on local climate in the WNP.

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Interdecadal Change of Tropical Cyclone Translation Speed during Peak Season in South China Sea: Observed Evidence, Model Results, and Possible Mechanism

Cited by 6 publications

References 38 publications

The Relationship between the Typhoons Affecting South China and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation

The Relationship between the Typhoons Affecting South China and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation

Regime Shifts in the Damage Caused by Tropical Cyclones in the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area of China

Interdecadal variability of meridional tropical cyclone genesis over the western North Pacific and associated modulating processes

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