Interdecadal changes of tropical cyclone intensity in the South China Sea

Zheng, Mingqi; Wang, Chunzai

doi:10.1007/s00382-022-06305-1

Cited by 6 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 112 publications

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“…At the interdecadal scale, the Indo-Pacific SST plays an important role in the BOB-SCS TC similar to the interannual timescale. For example, previous studies have documented that the Pacific decadal oscillation can modulate BOB TCs 40,41 and SCS TCs 24,42,43 . SCS TCs are also affected by the SST variability of the Indian Ocean at the interdecadal timescale 30 .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Unraveling the strong covariability of tropical cyclone activity between the Bay of Bengal and the South China Sea

Wu,

Hu,

Lin

et al. 2023

npj Clim Atmos Sci

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Herein, we report a strong in-phase covariability of tropical cyclone (TC) activity between the Bay of Bengal (BOB) and the South China Sea (SCS) during October–December of 1979–2019, and which is also the dominant mode of BOB–SCS TC activity, accounting for 35% of the total variances in TC track density. This inter-basin TC covariance is closely linked to the anomalies of tropical sea surface temperature, appearing as the intrinsic Indo-Pacific Tripole mode, which significantly affects the atmospheric circulations overlying the BOB–SCS. Interestingly, this mechanism works via modulating the local TC genesis frequency in the BOB–SCS. However, in terms of the migrated TCs among them, the Indo-Pacific Tripole mainly regulates their genesis location but not their frequency. More importantly, such inter-basin TC covariability still exists significantly even when the TC track data migrating from the SCS into the BOB are excluded. After all, only 19 TCs during the 41 years (1979–2019) are observed to migrate from the SCS to the BOB, which can only contribute slightly to increasing the covariability of BOB–SCS TC-track activity, but do not play a dominant role. Further, the numerical simulations suggest that although both the Indian and Pacific Oceans contribute to the atmospheric anomalies that affect the BOB–SCS TC activity, the Pacific-effect is twice as important.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Unraveling the strong covariability of tropical cyclone activity between the Bay of Bengal and the South China Sea

Wu,

Hu,

Lin

et al. 2023

npj Clim Atmos Sci

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“…These activities in the SCS might be due to changes in the surface sea temperature (SST) gradient between the Indian Ocean and the WNP and the intensity of the East Asian jet stream (Wang et al, 2012;Li and Zhou, 2014). Another study showed that the birthplace of TCs and vertical moisture advection dominated the interdecadal variation in TCs intensity over the SCS (Zheng and Wang, 2022). Previous studies have also found that the TC frequency across oceans appeared to show "seesaw" variability, which means the inverse phase change.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Decadal variation in the frequency of tropical cyclones originating in the South China Sea and migrating from the western North Pacific

Huang

Liang

2022

Front. Earth Sci.

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A decadal variation in the frequency of tropical cyclones (TCs) that reached their lifetime maximum intensity (LMI) in the South China Sea (SCS; 5°N-25°N, 107°E-121°E) from 1978 to 2020 was identified. TCs that generated and reached LMI in the SCS were named “local TCs,” while those that generated in the western North Pacific (WNP) and reached LMI in the SCS were named “migratory TCs.” A seesaw phenomenon in the frequencies of these two types of TCs was found before and after 1997. From 1978 to 1996, TC frequency was generally lower in local TCs but higher in migratory TCs. The opposite was true from 1997 to 2020. The main factors responsible for this “seesaw” phenomenon include changes in the genesis positions of TCs and the interdecadal variation of large-scale environmental flow patterns. From 1997 to 2020, during which the large-scale steering flow was favorable for local TCs, the monsoon trough over the WNP withdrew westward along with the warm pool and the subtropical high strengthened westward. Meanwhile, the sea surface temperature (SST) gradient between the equator and mid-latitudes decreased and the north wind weakened near 120°E. Easterly winds were strengthened in the equatorial region, which led to an abnormal anticyclone and the divergence of water vapor in the WNP. In contrast, the SST of the SCS, an internal sea, increased significantly. Under local atmosphere-ocean interaction, abnormal cyclonic circulation appeared in the SCS, which led to intensified convergence and intensified wet convection. Changes in the environmental fields in the WNP and SCS are the main reasons for the seesaw phenomenon observed in these two types of TCs.

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“…TC frequency, duration, intensity and size control the damage caused by TCs [1,2]. These parameters constantly affected by environmental factors such as sea surface temperature (SST), subtropical high, atmosphere vertical velocity, relative humidity and vertical wind shear [3][4][5][6][7][8][9]. These environmental factors are always regulated by climatic signals, e.g., El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation 2 of 17 (PDO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) [10][11][12][13][14].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This finding is associated with the zonal SST gradient between the northern Indian Ocean (NIO) and the western North Pacific (WNP) [5,16]. Furthermore, other studies have examined the intensity of TCs and have found a decrease in intensity from the mid-1990s to the mid-2000s [9,17]. This decrease in intensity has been attributed to the vertical moisture transport.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Regime Shifts in the Damage Caused by Tropical Cyclones in the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area of China

Zheng,

Mu,

et al. 2023

JMSE

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Tropical cyclones (TCs) pose a significant threat in terms of wind-induced damage and storm risk to the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) of China. In this research, annual power dissipation index (PDI) and storm surge and wave destructive potential (SDP) index from June to November were used to estimate the damage caused by the TC events in the buffer zone of the GBA. The regime shifts in 1993 and 2013 were identified through the Bayesian changepoint detection in six TC datasets. The TC-induced damage during 1994–2012 (the low-damage period) was weaker than that in 1977–1993 and 2013–2020 (the high-damage periods). The intensity and size of stronger TCs are the dominant factors responsible for the interdecadal changes in the TC damage. This may be explained by the influences of sea surface temperature (SST), surface latent heat flux and mid-level relative humidity. During high-damage periods, TCs can extract more energy from the ocean, leading to increased TC intensity and larger size. Conversely, during low-damage periods, TCs undergo a decrease in energy intake, resulting in reduced TC power and smaller size. The variations in the SST are relative to the Luzon Strait transport. In addition, the reduction in TC translation speed is unfavorable for the development of TCs in low-damage periods. Further research suggested that mid-level steering flow affects the TC movement velocity. The results offer valuable insights into the variations in the TC-induced damage in the GBA.

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Interdecadal changes of tropical cyclone intensity in the South China Sea

Cited by 6 publications

References 112 publications

Unraveling the strong covariability of tropical cyclone activity between the Bay of Bengal and the South China Sea

Unraveling the strong covariability of tropical cyclone activity between the Bay of Bengal and the South China Sea

Decadal variation in the frequency of tropical cyclones originating in the South China Sea and migrating from the western North Pacific

Regime Shifts in the Damage Caused by Tropical Cyclones in the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area of China

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