Interdecadal variability of the East Asian winter monsoon and its possible links to global climate change

Ding, Yihui; Liu, Yanju; Liang, Susan; Ma, Xuexi; Zhang, Yingxian; Si, Dong; Ping, Liang; Song, Yanling; Jin, Zhangdong

doi:10.1007/s13351-014-4046-y

Cited by 172 publications

(115 citation statements)

References 47 publications

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“…Some studies have documented decreasing trends in the EASM and EAWM over the past 50 years (Li and Zeng 2002;Zhu et al 2012;Ding et al 2008Ding et al , 2014Wang and Chen 2014;. Because China is located in the EAM region, the effects of the EAM on the SWS over China have been examined.…”

Section: Influence Of the Changes In The Large-scale Driving Force Onmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in terrestrial near-surface wind speed and their possible causes: an overview

et al. 2017

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drag forces are caused by changes in the external and internal friction in the atmosphere. Changes in surface friction are mainly caused by changes in the surface roughness due to land use and cover change (LUCC), including urbanization, and changes in internal friction are mainly induced by changes in the boundary layer characteristics. Future studies should compare the spatio-temporal differences in SWS between high and low altitudes and quantify the effects of different factors on the SWS. Additionally, in-depth analysis of extreme SWS events and prediction of future mean and extreme SWS values at global and regional scales are also necessary. Abstract Changes in terrestrial near-surface wind speed (SWS) are induced by a combination of anthropogenic activities and natural climate changes. Thus, the study of the long-term changes of SWS and their causes is very important for recognizing the effects of these processes. Although the slowdown in SWS has been analyzed in previous studies, to the best of knowledge, no overall comparison or detailed examination of this research has been performed. Similarly, the causes of the decreases in SWS and the best directions of future research have not been discussed in depth. Therefore, we analyzed a series of studies reporting SWS trends spanning the last 30 years from around the world. The changes in SWS differ among different regions. The most significant decreases have occurred in Central Asia and North America, with mean linear trends of − 0.11 m s −1 decade −1 ; the second most significant decreases have occurred in Europe, East Asia, and South Asia, with mean linear trends of − 0.08 m s −1 decade −1 ; and the weakest decrease has occurred in Australia. Although the SWS in Africa has decreased, this region lacks long-term observational data. Therefore, the uncertainties in the long-term SWS trend are higher in this region than in other regions. The changes in SWS, caused by a mixture of global-, regional-, and localscale factors, are mainly due to changes in driving forces and drag forces. The changes in the driving forces are caused by changes in atmospheric circulation, and the changes in the Keywords

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Section: Influence Of the Changes In The Large-scale Driving Force Onmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in terrestrial near-surface wind speed and their possible causes: an overview

et al. 2017

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“…The AMIP ensemble results in 1998-2014 support the hypothesis that Arctic sea ice loss might partly contribute to a recent recovery of Siberia High and cold winters in China (Gao et al 2015;Wu et al 2015;Zuo et al 2016). Meanwhile, the TIWP-EA wave train, including the anticyclonic anomaly from Siberia into East Central China and cyclonic anomaly over inland China, suggests that both TIO warming and Arctic sea ice decline might contribute to recent extreme winter events such as unusually severe cold surges and prolonged ice storms in South China in and 2016(Ding et al 2014.…”

Section: Conclusion and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 59%

“…On longer time scales, the EAWM weakened starting in the mid-1960s, coinciding with a weakening Siberia High and stronger warming in northern China Wang and Chen 2014;Ding et al 2014;also, Figs. 1, 2).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 93%

Tropical Indian Ocean warming contributions to China winter climate trends since 1960

Yao

Liu

et al. 2018

Clim Dyn

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This study investigates observed and modeled contributions of global sea surface temperature (SST) to China winter climate trends in 1960-2014, including increased precipitation, warming through about 1997, and cooling since then. Observations and Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations with prescribed historical SST and sea ice show that tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) warming and increasing rainfall causes diabatic heating that generates a tropospheric wave train with anticyclonic 500-hPa height anomaly centers in the TIO or equatorial western Pacific (TIWP) and northeastern Eurasia (EA) and a cyclonic anomaly over China, referred to as the TIWP-EA wave train. The cyclonic anomaly causes Indochina moisture convergence and southwesterly moist flow that enhances South China precipitation, while the northern anticyclone enhances cold surges, sometimes causing severe ice storms. AMIP simulations show a 1960-1997 China cooling trend by simulating increasing instead of decreasing Arctic 500-hPa heights that move the northern anticyclone into Siberia, but enlarge the cyclonic anomaly so it still simulates realistic China precipitation trend patterns. A separate idealized TIO SST warming simulation simulates the TIWP-EA feature more realistically with correct precipitation patterns and supports the TIWP-EA teleconnection as the primary mechanism for long-term increasing precipitation in South China since 1960. Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) experiments simulate a reduced TIO SST warming trend and weak precipitation trends, so the TIWP-EA feature is absent and strong drying is simulated in South China for 1960-1997. These simulations highlight the need for accurately modeled SST to correctly attribute regional climate trends.

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“…This kind of interdecadal variation of the North Pacific SST or PDO has exerted obvious effects on the East Asian winter monsoon, as well as climate, over this region. Numerous recent studies have shown that if the PDO is in a negative (positive) phase, it corresponds to a stronger (weaker) East Asian winter monsoon and colder (warmer) winter temperature (Li and Xian, 2003;Wang et al, 2007;Ding et al, 2014a).…”

Section: Winter Monsoonmentioning

confidence: 99%

From MONEX to the global monsoon: A review of monsoon system research

et al. 2014

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Substantial progress has been made over the past three decades since the Monsoon Experiments (MONEX) of 1978-79. Here, we review these achievements by highlighting four breakthroughs in monsoon research: (1) The identification of the coupled ocean-land-atmosphere nature of the monsoon in the process of the annual cycle of solar heating; (2) new understanding of the changes in the driving forces of monsoon systems, with anthropogenic factors (climate effects of increased greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions) playing an important role in the regulation of monsoons; (3) detection of the interdecadal-and centennial-scale variability of monsoon systems, and its attribution to the combined impact of global warming and natural (especially oceanic) effects; and (4) the emerging concept of the global monsoon and its long-term variation under the impact of global climate change. All the observational and model-derived evidence demonstrates that the monsoon system, as an important component of the global climate system, has already changed and will continue to change in the future. This picture of an evolving monsoon system poses great challenges for near-term prediction and long-term projection.

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Interdecadal variability of the East Asian winter monsoon and its possible links to global climate change

Cited by 172 publications

References 47 publications

Changes in terrestrial near-surface wind speed and their possible causes: an overview

Changes in terrestrial near-surface wind speed and their possible causes: an overview

Tropical Indian Ocean warming contributions to China winter climate trends since 1960

From MONEX to the global monsoon: A review of monsoon system research

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