Interference Phenomena in Temporal Evolution of Accident Probability in Workplaces

Abstract

The aim of this article is to investigate some implications of complexity in workplace risk assessment. Workplace is examined as a complex system, and some of its attributes and aspects of its behavior are investigated. Failure probability of various workplace elements is examined as a time variable and interference phenomena of these probabilities are presented. Potential inefficiencies of common perceptions in applying probabilistic risk assessment models are also discussed. This investigation is conducted through mathematical modeling and qualitative examples of workplace situations. A mathematical model for simulation of the evolution of workplace accident probability in time is developed. Its findings are then attempted to be translated in real-world terms and discussed through simple examples of workplace situations. The mathematical model indicates that workplace is more likely to exhibit an unpredictable behavior. Such a behavior raises issues about usual key assumptions for the workplace, such as aggregation. Chaotic phenomena (nonlinear feedback mechanisms) are also investigated for in simple workplace systems cases. The main conclusions are (1) that time is an important variable for risk assessment, since behavior patterns are complex and unpredictable in the long term and (2) that workplace risk identification should take place in a holistic view (not by work post).

The effectiveness of Bayesian updating in dynamic and complex systems

“…The failure probability of the prevention measure (p p ) is assumed to follow a cumulative Weibull distribution, which is widely used in reliability engineering (especially for mechanical failures). This prevention measure can be replaced (or repaired) at any time, which brings its failure probability to minimum and starts the Weibull curve from the beginning as shown in (Targoutzidis & Antonopoulou, 2006) and in Fig. 1 "Trigger" incidence probability (p t ) distribution is assumed to be unknown and complex.…”

“…The investigation will be based on the modeling framework for complex systems presented in Targoutzidis and Antonopoulou (2006). The failure probability of the prevention measure (p p ) is assumed to follow a cumulative Weibull distribution, which is widely used in reliability engineering (especially for mechanical failures).…”

“…Only aggregate (e.g. average) values from historical data of similar systems can be known in such systems, because even if the probability patterns of their component elements were precisely known, any minor variability in their setout can lead to a totally different probability distribution of the whole system (Targoutzidis & Antonopoulou, 2006).…”

An investigation of the economic perspective in modeling occupational risk

“…In the analysis in previous paragraphs it was assumed that performance is variable but still controllable by workers (curve b in Figure 1). It has been proved (Targoutzidis & Antonopoulou, 2006), however, that generally workplaces are nonlinear systems with feedback, as people adjust their performance according to the situation.…”

Υγεία Και Ασφάλεια Στην Εργασία : Οικονομική Διάσταση Και Μηχανισμοί Πρόκλησης Εργατικών Ατυχημάτων

“…Συνεισφορά της διατριβής αυτής ήταν η ενοποίηση των µοντέλων διαδοχής και των επιδηµιολογικών µοντέλων σε ένα ενιαίο µοντέλο συστηµικής φύσης. Η συγκεκριµένη εργασία δηµοσιεύτηκε στο διεθνές περιοδικό Risk Analysis (Targoutzidis, Antonopoulou 2006).…”