Intergenerational Educational Transmission within Families: An Analysis and Microsimulation Projection for Austria

Abstract

In this contribution we study intergenerational educational transmission within families in Austria. The paper is divided into an analytical part and a synthesis of the resulting behavioural models to a comprehensive computer microsimulation model that is used to project the future educational composition of the population. The models are based on retrospective event history data collected in the special programme of the 1996 micro-census, which was also used to generate the starting population for projections. The analysis of school choices reveals a very strong influence of parental educational attainment leading to strong intergenerational transmission mechanisms within families, i. e., considerable intergenerational persistence of educational careers within families. In contrast to the continuing educational expansion at the population level, very stable behavioural relationships can be found on the micro level when accounting for parental educational attainment. Our projections reveal that the educational expansion that we experienced in the last decades will continue at a very moderate speed in the next decades until an equilibrium is reached. In the equilibrium, half of the population will obtain a Matura diploma of which 30% will also graduate from university.

Gender and Educational Attainment Across Generations in Austria

“…We confirm the results of previous studies, documenting persistence in the intergenerational transmission of educational attainment (see Hertz et al [2007] for international results and Spielauer [2004] for some results on Austria). We have tested the intergenerational persistence in several ways, all of which give robust results.…”

“…We further expect -in line with Spielauer (2004) -that both men and women will have had more mobility over time due to (at least in part) legislative changes and investments in the Austrian education system and to the feminist movement, which has changed gender ideology and encouraged women to pursue education. Educational reforms and institutional circumstances are an important factor shaping intergenerational transmission (d'Addio 2007).…”

“…Geographically speaking, our study is most closely related to that of Martin Spielauer (2004), which analyzes the intergenerational educational transmission within families in Austria and finds that there is considerable intergenerational persistence of educational attainment, a result that counteracts the strong educational expansion over the past several decades. One drawback of Spielauer's approach is that he uses the higher value of the father's and mother's education to analyze the effect of parents' education on the child's probability of attending different school types and having various educational outcomes.…”

“…The result of the stronger same-gender than cross-gender relationships holds if we conduct the regressions on two different subsets of the sample according to the age category of the descendants referring to the time before the educational expansion (age categories born before 1945 and between 1945-59) and during (and after) the educational expansion (age categories born between 1960-9 and between 1970-83), with the sole exception of father-son versus father-daughter pairs for the older age categories subset. That means that even as the differences in educational outcomes in relation to gender are diminishing over time, which is documented in many studies (Steiner 1998;Gudrun Biffl 2002;Bacher 2003;Spielauer 2004), same-gender versus cross-gender differences in the intergenerational transmission of educational attainment seem to be quite stable to date. Note that we can neither show the influence of fathers on their daughters versus the influence on their sons nor the influence of mothers on their sons versus the influence on their daughters to be different at the statistically significant level of 5 percent in a nested model, which may also have to do with different distributional patterns over time and of course due to assortative mating and the limited number of observations.…”

“…The central amendment was the abolition of the entrance exam into grammar school (Allgemeine Höhere Schule). However, the division between secondary modern school (Hauptschule) and grammar school (Allgemeine Höhere Schule) at age 10 is still in place and might be relevant for a relatively low level of educational mobility (Spielauer 2004).…”