| INTRODUC TI ONCounseling women and their partners about preferable delivery mode after one cesarean section (CS) is a difficult task. There are medical as well as personal and emotional factors to discuss, and the specific delivery ward's tradition of handling births after CS has to be considered. The choice is between a trial of labor (TOL), hopefully ending in a vaginal birth after cesarean (VBAC), and an elective repeat CS. It has been shown that, in all, a TOL ending in a VBAC is the most favorable scenario for the health of mother and child, followed by an elective repeat CS and, last, a TOL ending in an emergency CS. 1,2 Abstract Introduction: The objective was to create a clinically useful prediction model for vaginal birth in trial of labor after one cesarean section, appropriate for a third trimester consultation.
Material and methods:Women with one cesarean section and at least one following delivery (N = 38 686) in the Swedish Medical Birth Register, 1998-2013, were studied. The women were randomly divided into one development and one validation data set. From the development data set, variables associated with vaginal birth after cesarean (VBAC) were identified by univariable logistic regression. Stepwise backward selection was performed until all variables were statistically significant. From the final fitted multivariable logistic model, likelihood ratios were calculated, in order to transpose odds ratios into clinically useful measurements. A constant, based on the delivery ward VBAC in trial of labor rate, was used. By applying the likelihood ratios on the validation data set, the VBAC chance for each woman was estimated with the Bayesian theorem, and the ability of the model to predict VBAC was explored using receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves.
Results:A previous VBAC, and a previous cesarean section for non-cephalic presentation, were the strongest VBAC predictors. The lowest chances were found for a previous cesarean section due to dystocia, and among women with <18 months since the last cesarean section. The area under the ROC curve was 0.67.
Conclusions:The new model was satisfactory in predicting VBAC in trial of labor.Developed as a software application, it would become a clinically useful decision-aid. K E Y W O R D S cesarean section, decision aid, elective repeat cesarean section, prediction model, trial of labor, vaginal birth after cesarean | 661 CARLSSON FAGERBERG ANd KÄLLÉNSince 2011, about 17% of women in Sweden have given birth by CS-with large differences between hospitals. Hence, decisions concerning delivery mode in pregnancies following one CS are made every day. In Sweden, about 70% of women would choose, or be eligible for, a TOL after cesarean (TOLAC). Among these women, about 75% would reach a successful VBAC. 3 Previously, we have performed a validation and adaptation of the widely used US prediction model from 2007 by Grobman et al, to fit a Nordic setting. 3,4 In the present study, we wanted to add several factors of importance to create an even more accur...