Internal wars in history: Triggered by natural disasters or socio-ecological catastrophes?

Abstract

Chaotic events that might be regarded as proximate causes in triggering war have rarely been considered in the large- N quantitative studies of historical warfare. Furthermore, it has not been fully determined which types of chaotic events, natural disasters or socio-ecological catastrophes, are more influential in modulating the likelihood of wars. This study is based on the incidents of 5368 natural disasters, 1478 famines, 5700 epidemics, 456 nomadic invasions, and 1315 internal wars in the agricultural region (including wheat and rice regions) of China in AD 1470–1911, together with Poisson regression and Granger Causality analyses, to explore the catalytic effect of natural disasters and socio-ecological catastrophes in modulating the likelihood of wars in history. The comparison between the wheat and the rice regions is focused. This is the first large- N inter-regional quantitative analysis on this topic. Our statistical results show that, in general, socio-ecological catastrophes are the proximate triggers of internal wars. Specifically, internal wars are triggered by epidemics in the wheat region, and they are ignited by famines in the rice region in historic China. In addition, internal wars in the two agro-ecological zones are revealed to be context-dependent. Also, conceptual models about the synergy of natural disasters and socio-ecological catastrophes in causing internal wars in the wheat and the rice regions are proposed, respectively. The above findings supplement the Malthusian theory by demonstrating the inter-connection among various mortality factors, which has rarely been examined empirically in academia. Moving beyond historic China, researchers are encouraged to boil down war data in other parts of the world by geographic regions in the course of their statistical analysis to examine each region individually in follow-up studies.

Ocean/atmosphere interaction and Malthusian catastrophes on the northern fringe of the Asian summer monsoon region in China, 1368–1911

“…In terms of Malthusian checks, both the lagged values of famine and drought Granger-cause epidemics (p < 0.01). This is consistent with previous research findings pertinent to the wheat region in China, where Shaanxi is located (Lee, 2018a). Also, our observed drought-epidemics connection agrees with Schmid et al (2015) that in northwestern China and Central Asia, drought brought the collapse of plague-infected rodent populations, forcing their fleas to find alternative hosts and to come into contact with humans.…”

“…4b). Such inter-annual to multi-decadal synchrony can be supported by the empirical findings of the interconnection among various Malthusian checks in China at the inter-annual (Lee, 2018a) to multi-decadal scale (Lee, 2014;. During drought events, famines, epidemics and wars become coincident at the inter-annual to multi-decadal scale.…”

“…Given the low technology level and limited social buffering mechanisms in historic agrarian societies, natural disasters such as drought, flood and pests could have a devastating impact on agricultural production, resulting in famine (Lee, 2014; Lee and Zhang, 2010a, 2013). Moreover, through the impact of drought and flood on agricultural production, subsistence pressure could be further intensified to trigger the outbreak of wars and epidemics (Lee, 2018a). Famines, wars and epidemics, which are coined as Malthusian catastrophes, often reinforce each other to reduce the human population size (Lee, 2014; Lee and Zhang, 2010a, 2013).…”

Examining the Direct and Indirect Effects of Climatic Variables on Plague Dynamics

“…We considered three sets of climate data, namely temperature, precipitation, and scPDSI, for our analysis in this study. They were common parameters for historical study relating to climate-human relationships and were found strongly significant in influencing plague dynamics over time and space [18,19].…”

Chronology and Plant Utilization from the Earliest Walled Settlement in the Hexi Corridor, Northwestern China

“…Climate-induced shortage of subsistence resource could drive social instability or even conflicts among regions (Lee et al 2017;Lee 2018). This might eventually induce the need for walled settlements for the protection of settlers (Wu 2002;Qiu and Yao 2003).…”