International arrivals forecasting for Australian airports and the impact of tourism marketing expenditure

Tsui

Journal of Air Transport Management

2019

Self Cite

International visitor arrivals are considered to be a major source of foreign exchange, tourism-related employment and other tourism-related activities. This study used SARIMAX/(E)GARCH volatility models to forecast visitor arrivals by air transport to New Zealand from its eight key tourist source markets the United Kingdom (UK) and the United States (US)) and control macroeconomic factors together with global and regional structural changes. The empirical models reveal that the macroeconomic factors contributed at various levels to different markets, and the models we provided made accurate and reliable forecasts for visitor arrivals by air transport from all studied markets. The results from the markets for Germany, Japan, South Korea and the UK showed that significantly negative tourism demand shocks increased the volatility of tourism arrivals, more than positive tourism demand shocks of equal magnitude. Accordingly, the findings of this study will allow policy-makers in the New Zealand tourism sector and other stakeholders (e.g. airline management) to better understand the impacts on the volatility of visitor arrivals to New Zealand.

Section: Recent Developments In Tourism Forecasting Methodologymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Australia always contributes the largest share of New Zealand's visitor arrivals because of their strong shared ties (e.g. economy, culture and family), which stimulates the growth in visitor arrivals from Australia (Ryan and Birks, 2006;Tsui and Balli, 2015).…”

Section: Mean Equationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling the volatility of international visitor arrivals to New Zealand

Tsui

Journal of Air Transport Management

2019

Self Cite

“…Como hemos comentado previamente, planteamos la utilización de modelos del tipo SARIMAX para la modelización y previsión del tráfico aéreo de pasajeros comerciales, que combinan la modelización univariante ARIMA con una variable explicativa externa, conformando una función de transferencia. La incorporación de una variable explicativa que esté íntimamente relacionada con el tráfico aéreo de pasajeros contribuye a la mejora de la precisión del pronóstico (Williams, 2007;Tsui et al, 2014;Tsui y Balli, 2017).…”

Section: Figuraunclassified

Modelos de series temporales aplicados a la predicción del tráfico aeroportuario español de pasajeros: Un enfoque agregado y desagregado

García¹,

Flores²,

Gutiérrez³

2019

SAE

La utilidad de las predicciones económicas es un hecho constatado en los países desarrollados para anticiparse a la toma de decisiones o a la aplicación concreta de políticas económicas. El tráfico aéreo de pasajeros es una de las principales magnitudes de actividad económica de un país, especialmente relevante en España, destino turístico internacional de primera magnitud. En este trabajo abordamos la realización de predicciones del tráfico total de pasajeros aéreos a nivel nacional a partir de la evolución mensual disponible en AENA, con modelos SARIMAX. Examinamos si, y en qué medida, el poder predictivo del tráfico aeroportuario de pasajeros en España, en términos agregados, puede ser mejorado mediante el uso de información más detallada e individualizada, a través de un enfoque desagregado (procedente de la suma de las predicciones realizadas para los diferentes aeropuertos regionales), en términos de la fiabilidad y precisión de los resultados.

“…In fact even though U.K. (Club I) is also a traditional source of tourism demand for Australia, according to Tsui and Balli (2017) has been recently overtooked by China (Club II). This is also evident of why the two Clubs show a divergence path especially after the end of 2006.…”

Section: Table 1 About Herementioning

confidence: 99%

Integration of tourism markets in Australia

Kourtzidis

Heryán

2018

Tourism Economics

By applying the methodological framework of transition modeling and econometric convergence tests introduced by Philips and Sul, we reveal the existence of convergence clubs and transition convergence paths of international visitor arrivals for Australia. Specifically, by using monthly data of international arrivals over the period of January 1991 to September 2017, we provide evidence that tourism markets can integrate. The analysis suggests the identification of five distinct convergence clubs. This in turn signifies an integration phenomenon of Australia's tourism market, which is revealed through the different convergence patterns of international visitor arrivals. Finally, it is evident that the revealed integration behavior of Australia's international tourism market, will enable policy makers to target better tourism needs through customized policies.