International Migration and City Growth in the Global South: An Analysis of IPUMS Data for Seven Countries, 1992–2013

Lerch, Mathias

doi:10.1111/padr.12344

Cited by 22 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 49 publications

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“…Yet, without enough evidence across countries of rural/urban origin and destination of international migrants, it is not possible to fully understand the role of international flows in the urban transition. Nevertheless, based on evidence from low‐ and middle‐income countries which suggests that as cities grow, net international migration substitutes losses from net internal migration in large cities, we expect that at higher levels of urbanization, international migration plays a larger role (Lerch 2020). Broadly, if it were possible to include international migration, we would expect that the role of migration‐reclassification would be lower.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 98%

Urbanization Is No Longer Driven by Migration in Low‐ and Middle‐Income Countries (1985–2015)

Menashe‐Oren¹,

Bocquier²

2021

Population & Development Rev

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Across the world, populations have transitioned to inhabiting urban spaces, and in low‐ and middle‐income countries the proportion of people living in cities is expected to continue to increase. Anticipation of this fundamental process calls for a better understanding of the demographic factors that drive the urban transition. By indirectly estimating the joint contribution of migration and administrative reclassification to urban transition in 129 countries using urban and rural population by age and sex data available from the United Nations over 1985–2015, we find that differences in natural increase between the rural and urban sectors explain most of the urbanization over the 30‐year period examined. Over the urban transition, the role of migration and reclassification declines and becomes negligible. Despite data limitations, we confirm that it is misleading to view migration as fueling urbanization in low‐ and middle‐income countries.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 98%

Urbanization Is No Longer Driven by Migration in Low‐ and Middle‐Income Countries (1985–2015)

Menashe‐Oren¹,

Bocquier²

2021

Population & Development Rev

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“…Moreover, the traditional focus on net migration (i.e., the difference between the number of immigrants and the number of outmigrants) has hidden the relevance of migratory flows for demography (Rogers 1990 ). While the relevance of migratory flows in shaping population change has been documented at the level of cities (Lerch 2020 ), we have shown that it is also relevant for many societies and that this relevance might change over time.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 57%

“…At the national level, some statistical offices produce estimates of population flows that include immigration and emigration, also on an annual basis. For our case studies, we use official estimates provided by the national statistical institutes of Germany (DESTATIS-Federal Statistical Office, data between 1990 and2020) and Italy (ISTAT-Italian National Institute of Statistics, data between 1916 and 2020) (note that for both Germany and Italy, the 2020 data we use are still considered provisional).…”

Section: The Speed Of Population Change: Data and Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Demography: Fast and Slow

Billari¹

2022

Population & Development Rev

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Scientific ideas on the human population tend to be rooted in a "slow demography" paradigm, which emphasizes an inertial, predictable, self-contained view of population dynamics, mostly dependent on fertility and mortality. Yet, demography can also move fast. At the country level, it is crucial to empirically assess how fast demography moves by taking migratory movements into account, in addition to fertility and mortality. We discuss these ideas and present new estimates of the speed of population change, that is, country-level population turnover rates, as well as the share of turnover due to migration, for all countries in the world with available data between 1990 and 2020. Population turnover is inversely related to population size and development, and migratory movements tend to become important factors in shaping demography for both small and highly developed countries. Longitudinally, we analyze annual turnover data for Italy and Germany, documenting the changing speed of population change over time and its determinants. Accepting the "fast and slow" demography perspective has several implications for science and policy, which we discuss.How do we make sense of human population change? Ideally, we start from a reliable snapshot of the present, based on solid data on the recent past and adequate knowledge about the more distant past. This information is used to understand the direction of population change and to feed future scenarios. Population data are organized in temporal scales that are considered to be appropriate according to the current scientific consensus: what temporal scale is appropriate might vary, also, within a subject. In meteorology, for instance, data are timed over decades and years or centuries, as well as over hours and minutes depending on the specific purpose of research and/or analysis. For instance, in weather forecasting, aggregating precipitation data at the hourly level implies higher information loss, as compared to the aggregation of air temperature data (Krzyszczak et al. 2017). As we will see, the same is true in demography: in certain times and places, population change is slow, and data can be gathered "slowly";

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“…This, coupled with a failure of statistical and census bodies to capture cyclical migration, explains, in Kundu's view, India's low urbanisation rates. In contrast to other Southern cities where migration typically accounts for higher percentages of urban growth, its contribution in Indian cities has hovered around 20% (Bhagat, 2018;Lerch, 2020). Thus rural-to-urban reclassification, that is, territorial transformation, takes on a greater role in accounting for urbanisation.…”

Section: Urbanisation and Spatial Transformationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Urban studies in India across the millennial turn: Histories and futures

Coelho

Sood²

2021

Urban Studies

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The millennial turn saw a distinct efflorescence in scholarship on urban India. This essay introduces a Virtual Special Issue on urban studies in India that showcases a selection of articles from the journal’s archives. It traces the disciplinary, thematic and methodological shifts that have marked this millennial turn. On the one hand, the social science of the urban has had a statist bent, reacting to the policy focus on cities as growth engines in the post-liberalisation era. On the other hand, critical urban studies has brought attention to the unregulated, deregulated, unplanned and unintended city produced by dynamic processes of informality acting overtly or covertly against the state’s neoliberal agendas. This introductory essay aims to examine the ways this interplay has unfolded both in the pages of this journal and elsewhere. It locates the Virtual Special Issue selection within a broader review of the state of scholarship in Indian urban studies and marks out areas for productive interventions in the future study of Indian cities.

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International Migration and City Growth in the Global South: An Analysis of IPUMS Data for Seven Countries, 1992–2013

Cited by 22 publications

References 49 publications

Urbanization Is No Longer Driven by Migration in Low‐ and Middle‐Income Countries (1985–2015)

Urbanization Is No Longer Driven by Migration in Low‐ and Middle‐Income Countries (1985–2015)

Demography: Fast and Slow

Urban studies in India across the millennial turn: Histories and futures

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