International Migration and Development: The Changing Impact of Migration on Redistributing Global Population

Abstract

This research note explores the impact of international migration on global population distribution since the 1990s. The impact of migration on population distribution is a function of both the intensity as well as the effectiveness of migration, that is the imbalance between flows and counter-flows. The presence of reciprocal flows is a well-recognized feature of international migration systems; however, this dimension has been difficult to capture at the global level due to a lack of origin-destination flow data. In this research note, we apply metrics developed for the analysis of internal migration to global migration flows to explore the impact of international migration on global population distribution over time, and across levels of human development. In the five years to 2020, international migration redistributed 0.39 percent of the world's population (28 million people) despite 1.38 percent (101 million) changing country of residence. This has declined from 0.56 percent of the global population in 1990–1995. This decline in impact is underpinned by a reduction in migration effectiveness, that is, the migration system is becoming more balanced over time. The impact of migration was greatest for flows between countries at Very High levels of human development, reflecting high migration intensity and exchanges between countries at Low and Very High levels of human development, reflecting significant asymmetry of flows. Our results suggest systematic shifts in both the level and pattern of flows across the development ladder, with flows becoming more intense and balanced with higher levels of human development.

The Potential Impact of Demographic Changes in Geopolitical Landscape

“…Notably, there is a discernible shift toward an ageing population in many advanced economies, attributed to declining birth rates and extended life expectancies (Mavroudi & Nagel, 2016). In contrast, several emerging economies and regions, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and parts of Asia, are experiencing youth bulges, marked by a high proportion of young people entering the workforce, offering both opportunities for economic growth and challenges in providing adequate employment and education opportunities (Charles-Edwards et al, 2023). These demographic changes, alongside variations in fertility rates, and migration flows, collectively contribute to a complex and dynamic global demographic landscape, necessitating nuanced analyses to comprehend their far-reaching implications for geopolitics, economies, and societies worldwide (Charles-Edwards et al, 2023).…”

“…Japan, with its ageing population, has explored immigration to address labour shortages, signalling a shift in its traditionally homogenous society (Mavroudi & Nagel, 2023). Russia, on the other hand, faces a substantial influx of labour migrants from Central Asia and Eastern Europe, impacting its social fabric and regional influence (Charles-Edwards et al, 2023). The USA remains a global magnet for immigration, shaping its demographic diversity and soft power while fuelling debates over immigration policies (Beckley, 2018).…”

“…In a larger picture, Asia and Africa often serve as significant sources of emigration due to economic disparities and political conflicts (Charles-Edwards et al, 2023). The resulting global dispersion of diaspora communities wields considerable influence on international diplomacy, trade, and remittances, linking their host countries to geopolitical developments in their regions of origin (Charles-Edwards et al, 2023). In contrast, North America, especially the United States and Canada, remains attractive to immigrants, contributing to the enrichment of cultural diversity and labour force dynamics (Gamlen, 2019).…”

“…These immigration patterns spark policy debates, influence electoral politics, and have direct consequences on trade relations, as immigrants often become crucial consumers and contributors to innovation in these destination countries (Gamlen, 2019). Also, Europe experiences complex migration trends marked by both intra-European mobility, driven by economic opportunities and regional stability, and immigration from outside the continent, often influenced by factors like conflict and humanitarian crises (Charles-Edwards et al, 2023). These migration dynamics have led to debates over integration, security, and social cohesion, shaping the political landscape and policy discussions across the European Union and individual countries.…”

Assessing the differentiated impacts of COVID-19 on the immigration flows to Europe

“…Our model explains 33.1% of the variance. It provides a good understanding about some of the main variables explaining immigration changes during the pandemic, but we recognise that migration is a multi-factorial phenomenon (Charles-Edwards et al, 2023) and other variables at origin and destination may have had a variating impact on the different migration streams to Europe.…”