International monetary policy spillovers to emerging economies in Sub-Saharan Africa: A global VAR analysis

Tumala, Mohammed M.; Salisu, Afees A.; Atoi, Ngozi V.; Yaaba, Baba N.

doi:10.1016/j.sciaf.2021.e00976

Cited by 12 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…Mekonnen (2020) examines how economic disturbances in E.U, U.S and China play significant roles in macroeconomic fluctuation in SSA region. The findings of this study are supported by the conclusion of Tumala et al (2021) that monetary policy shocks from the U.S, China and Euro significantly influence changes in exchange rate, interest rate and other key macroeconomic variables in SSA region.…”

Section: 0supporting

confidence: 77%

“…The last strand of empirical studies examines the origin of economic disturbances (shocks) based on country level sources and influences exerted on macroeconomic fluctuations in SSA region. Some of these studies include Tumala et al (2021), Sikiru andSalisu (2021), Mekonnen (2020), Gurara andNcube (2013), andNdulu andO'Connell (2007), among others. Mekonnen (2020) examines how economic disturbances in E.U, U.S and China play significant roles in macroeconomic fluctuation in SSA region.…”

Section: 0mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Sikiru and Salisu (2021) found that countries in the ECOWAS region, both WAEMU and WAMZ, are vulnerable to inflation and other economic shocks from U.S and China. Arizala, Bellon, & MacDonald (2019) also examines the role of economic performance of crucial regional trading partners in macroeconomic fluctuations in SSA.…”

Section: 0mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Global Inflation Problem and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Sub-Sahara Africa Empirical Analysis of Inflation Shocks from Key Trading Partners

Taiwo

Uwilingiye

2023

Preprint

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Evolving inflationary pressure from the global economy, especially advanced countries and its new directional impacts on emerging economies have provided new evidence on the validity of international transmission of economic shocks from key trading partners as sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in sub-Sahara African countries. A Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) model was estimated for inflationary shocks from US, UK, Euro and China on the performance of macroeconomic variables in 21 SSA countries. These countries are grouped into three country classes – oil-rich, other resources-rich and non-resource based economies. This study confirmed that inflation shocks from these economies are significant in driving the macroeconomic fluctuation (Real Gross Domestic Product (rGDP), inflation, exchange rate and short-term interest rate) in the region. In addition, the spillover effects of these were also assessed while noting the divergences of impacts based on the economic structures of economies in the region. The oil-rich countries were found to be the most affected by inflationary shocks from the U.S, China, and Euro. JEL: E17, E32, F02, F62

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Section: 0supporting

confidence: 77%

Section: 0mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Global Inflation Problem and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Sub-Sahara Africa Empirical Analysis of Inflation Shocks from Key Trading Partners

Taiwo

Uwilingiye

2023

Preprint

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“…Kumar et al (2021a) applied VAR to examine the linkage between the crude oil market and rubber market in India. Similarly, to understand the causal relationship and linkage between different financial markets, VAR methodology has been used by (Akgül et al 2015;Bataa et al 2018;Taghizadeh-Hesary et al 2019;Yousaf and Ali 2020;Tumala et al 2021).…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Using Econometric Models to Manage the Price Risk of Cocoa Beans: A Case from India

Kumar

Spulbăr

Pinto³

et al. 2022

Risks

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This study aims at developing econometric models to manage the price risk of Dry and Wet Cocoa beans with the help of ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) and VAR (Vector Auto Regressive). The monthly price of Cocoa beans is collected for the period starting from April 2009 to March 2020 from the office of CAMPCO Limited, Mangalore, and the ICE Cocoa futures price from the website of investing.com. The augmented dickey fuller test is used to test the stationarity of the series. The ACF and PACF correlograms are used to identify the tentative ARIMA model. Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Schwarz criterion (SBIC), Sigma square, and adjusted R2 are used to decide on the optional AR and MA terms for the models. Durbin–Watson statistics and correlograms of the residuals are used to decide on the model’s goodness of fit. Identified optimal models were ARIMA (1, 1, 0) for the Dry Cocoa beans price series and ARIMA (1, 1, 2) for the Wet Cocoa beans price series. The multivariate VAR (1) model found that the US and London Cocoa futures prices traded on the ICE platform will influence the price of Dry Cocoa in India. This study will be helpful to forecast the price of Cocoa beans to manage the price risk, precisely for Cocoa traders, Chocolate manufacturers, Cocoa growers, and the government for planning and decision-making purposes.

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“…International economic phenomena such as global inflation, foreign interest rates, exchange rates, and so on greatly affect the real output of developing countries. In addition, the monetary policies of the superpowers also affect the real output of developing countries (Tumala, Salisu, Atoi, & Yaaba, 2021) . International interventions such as the world bank both in terms of ideas and funds affect the development of Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs) , this can be seen from the success of several programs in NGOs , one of them is "Jevika" in India (Siwach, Paul, & de Hoop, 2022).…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact Of Export Quantity, Oil Production And Tax Revenue On GDP Growth In Russia

Ikhsan¹,

Cholil²

2022

AEBD

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This research investigates the percentage of exports of GDP, Tax Revenue, Production of electricity from oil sources, and Economic growth with GDP growth as an indicator (in percent) in Russia. This study uses a qualitative method with a vector autoregressive model This research employs a research period from 2000 to 2020. We find that economic growth is accelerating positively concerning to tax revenue and consumption of oil-based energy. But taxes suppress economic growth. That is, when economic growth increases, taxes, and oil consumption also increase. However, when taxes increase, it depresses economic growth. Although tax revenues suppress exports, an increase in exports actually increases tax revenues. The increase in exports also boosted oil consumption. Russia's state finances are indirectly affected by the rise and fall of oil prices as one of the commodities that contribute significantly to Russia's exports, which is indicated by the increase in exports pushing Russia's revenue.

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International monetary policy spillovers to emerging economies in Sub-Saharan Africa: A global VAR analysis

Cited by 12 publications

References 29 publications

Global Inflation Problem and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Sub-Sahara Africa Empirical Analysis of Inflation Shocks from Key Trading Partners

Global Inflation Problem and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Sub-Sahara Africa Empirical Analysis of Inflation Shocks from Key Trading Partners

Using Econometric Models to Manage the Price Risk of Cocoa Beans: A Case from India

Impact Of Export Quantity, Oil Production And Tax Revenue On GDP Growth In Russia

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