International patterns in incidence and mortality trends of pancreatic cancer in the last three decades: A joinpoint regression analysis

Abstract

BACKGROUND Pancreatic cancer, as the one of most fatal malignancies, remains a critical issue in the global burden of disease. AIM To estimate trends in pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality worldwide in the last three decades. METHODS A descriptive epidemiological study was done. Pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality data were obtained from the database of the World Health Organization. Analysis of pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality during 2020 was performed. The age-standardized rates (ASRs, expressed per 100000) were presented. To estimate trends of incidence and mortality of pancreatic cancer, joinpoint regression analysis was used: the average annual percent change (AAPC) with the corresponding 95% confidence interval (95%CI) was calculated. Additionally, analysis was performed by sex and age. In this paper, the trend analysis included only countries with high and medium data quality. RESULTS A total of 495773 (262865 male and 232908 female) new cases and 466003 (246840 male and 219163 female) deaths from pancreatic cancer were reported worldwide in 2020. In both sexes, most of the new cases (191348; 38.6% of the total) and deaths (182074; 39.1% of the total) occurred in the Western Pacific Region. In both sexes, the highest ASRs were found in the European Region, while the lowest rates were reported in the South-East Asia Region. The general pattern of rising pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality was seen across countries worldwide in observed period. Out of all countries with an increase in pancreatic cancer incidence, females in France and India showed the most marked rise in incidence rates (AAPC = +3.9% and AAPC = +3.7%, respectively). Decreasing incidence trends for pancreatic cancer were observed in some countries, but without significance. Out of all countries with an increase in pancreatic cancer mortality rates, Turkmenistan showed the most marked rise both in males (AAPC = +10.0%, 95%CI: 7.4–12.5) and females (AAPC = +6.4%, 95%CI: 3.5–9.5). The mortality trends of pancreatic cancer were decreasing in both sexes only in Canada and Mexico. CONCLUSION Further research is needed to explain the cause of large international differences in incidence and mortality trends of pancreatic cancer in last three decades.

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