International Relations Theory, Foreign Policy Substitutability, and “Nice” Laws

Abstract

Two logical problems appear to have impeded the development of an integrative understanding of international and foreign policy phenomena. The first has to do with the potential for foreign policy substitutability: through time and across space, similar factors could plausibly be expected to trigger different foreign policy acts. The second concerns the potential existence of “sometimes true,” domain-specific laws. It is the logical opposite of the substitution problem, suggesting that different processes could plausibly be expected to lead to similar results. Neither problem appears to be well understood in the current literature; if anything, both are ignored. Nevertheless, they are potentially important. Together, they suggest that scholars who are interested in developing a cumulative base of integrative knowledge about foreign policy and international relations phenomena need to rethink both their focus on middle-range theory and their application of the standard approaches. We recommend reconsideration of some of the “grand” theoretical approaches found in the “traditional” literature. A new synthesis of tradition and science and of grand, middle, and narrow approaches appears to be needed. Finally, in contrast to the arguments of proponents of a systems-level approach, we argue that the most fruitful avenues for theorizing and research are at the microlevel in which the focus is on decision making, expected utility calculations, and foreign policy interaction processes.

Bringing geography back to the study of international relations: Spatial dependence and regional context in Africa, 1966–1978

“…Starr and Most, in a series of papers (1985, for a summary of the project), expanded on the core concept of the Sprout model, that of the actor-environment relationship, in order to examine conflicts between states. The "opportunity" and "willingness" of states (actors) to get involved in conflicts as a result of changing conditions among their neighbors (environment) was supported as the cause of the diffusion (both positive and negative) of war (Most and Starr, 1984). Downloaded by [UQ Library] at 06:20 02 November 2014…”

“…Recognition of "Galton's problem," that certain traits in an area are often caused not by the same factor operating independently in each area but by diffusion processes, has been belatedly recognized in IR research (Luterbacher, 1984). The Starr/Most project has used the concepts of "opportunity" and "willingness" to explain the diffusion of conflict in both the world-system (Most and Starr, 1980) and in Africa Most, 1983 and. As is clear from their results, positive spatial diffusion varies significantly by sample and Downloaded by [UQ Library] at 06:20 02 November 2014 by the type of neighbor definition.…”

A two‐good theory of foreign policy: An application to dispute initiation and reciprocation

“…We believe we Downloaded by [New York University] at 10:08 23 July 2015 offer the reader sufficient information regarding the model that the formalization can be anticipated by those so inclined. Second, while it is important to account for a range of behavior, and to identify areas of substitutability (Most and Starr, 1984), it is also important to apply the theory to the explanation of isolated, specific questions, especially important ones, like those dealing with conflict behavior. In addition, focusing more narrowly on a behavior for which there exist readily available data makes preliminary tests of the theory much easier.…”

The Trade Policy of Emerging Powers

“…Ultimately, they are expected to select the option which brings the most benefits at the least cost. This references the idea of policy "substitutability" introduced by Most and Starr (1984): Since all policy options are evaluated by the same, rational cost-benefit analysis, then any strategic choice can, at least theoretically, be substituted for any other in a given policymaking situation. The three strategic choices employed as dependent variables in this project are substitution, reform, and simple use.…”