International Terrorism and the Political Survival of Leaders

Abstract

This study examines whether transnational terrorist attacks impact the political survival of leaders. We argue that external security threats, such as those from transnational terrorist incidents, can undermine incumbent target governments by exposing foreign policy failures and damaging society’s general well-being. Yet, terrorism may not destabilize democratic governments as a result of citizens rallying around their elected leaders in threatening times. Focusing on Archigos’ survival leadership data and International Terrorism: Attributes of Terrorist Events’ terrorism data for the 1968–2004 period, we find that autocrats who experience higher instances of transnational terrorist attacks are more likely to exit power. Democrats, however, are relatively secure to the destabilizing influence of transnational terrorism.

The Impact of Terrorism on Governance in African Countries

“…Moreover, terrorism may provide the incumbent government with the leverage of using the heightened risk of violence with associated national unrest in maintaining their grip on power. This narrative is consistent with Park and Bali (2016) on the relationship between terrorism and political survival.…”

“…The higher magnitude of transnational terrorism compared with domestic terrorism could also be explained by the fact that the relationship between terrorism and political survival is more apparent with transnational terrorism (see Park & Bali, 2016). Beyond citizens rallying around elected leaders in threatening times; transnational terrorism in undermining 'incumbent target governments' also damages society's general well-being.…”

The impact of terrorism on public debt in African countries

“…Several countries lack the capacity to effectively control borders, which is a vulnerability that can be exploited by terrorist groups to establish training bases for their members and to transport and distribute weapons across the sub‐region. African countries have directly addressed these evils and have responded at regional, sub‐regional, and national levels with increasing challenges (Park & Bali, 2017). Yet, African responses have not dampened the terrorist flow, and these responses to terrorist crimes and crises would not have a lasting positive impact unless they are well organized, clearly defined and do respect human rights and the rule of law (Asongu & Nwachukwu, 2017).…”

On the human consequences of terrorism

“…Williams et al (2013) find that when transnational terrorism occurs, parliamentarian governments on the left of the political spectrum are more likely to fail than those on the right, and that the probability of government replacement rises with the total number killed in any given month. Park and Bali (2017) find that transnational terrorism destabilizes incumbents, with the effect being most profound for autocracies.…”