International Trade and Industrialization With Negative Population Growth

Sasaki, Hiroaki

doi:10.1017/s1365100514000030

Cited by 8 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…Together with income, market size (population) is often associated with purchasing power or a proxy for demand. In Sasaki (2015), a high population growth rate is associated with larger trading flows driven by consumption growth, especially under free trade agreements that offer large scope in liberalization. A larger GDP and a greater similarity between countries, is associated with a larger probability of trade creation (Baier & Bergstrand, 2004;Baier et al, 2019).…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of determinants of Indonesian agricultural exports

Sugiharti¹,

Purwono²,

Esquivias³

2020

JESI

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This paper analyses determinants of agricultural exports and imports from Indonesia, including a set of demand and supply factors capturing effects of income, market size, prices, tariffs, exchange rates and variables related to logistics, competitiveness, trade policy, and innovation. A specific focus is on trade creation and diversion effects possibly arising as Indonesia experienced a deep liberalization of markets through the implementation of multiple Free Trade Agreements (FTAs). A gravity model helps to analyze the determinants of trade and the impacts of the various trade agreements, applied to two categories of agricultural exports: raw goods and food. The dataset comprises 50 countries with data on exports and imports from 2007 until 2017. The results find trade creation effects for both categories, with larger effects in exports within agricultural raw goods, and higher trade creation effects through imports in food. Indonesia also experienced trade expansion with non-free trade partners, suggesting that demand variables (e.g., income, market size, sophistication) are a more critical driver of growth rather than agreements. Price factors affect agricultural goods, with food products experiencing elastic price demand, while raw goods are affected by prices and exchange rate. Gains in competitiveness, logistics performance, and innovation is supporting agricultural exports (imports as well), although Indonesia is behind most of its trade partners. The current implementation of the FTA should be critically evaluated concerning food products as imports have expanded more rapidly than exports, and domestic goods may have experienced pressure from liberalization.

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of determinants of Indonesian agricultural exports

Sugiharti¹,

Purwono²,

Esquivias³

2020

JESI

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“…In contrast, Stiglitz (1974) assumes constant returns to scale and introduces a positive exogenous technological progress rate and a positive population growth rate. Specifications similar to Equation ( 2) are also used by Christiaans (2008Christiaans ( , 2011Christiaans ( , 2017, Sasaki (2015), and Sasaki and Hoshida (2017). We can change Equation ( 2) to 𝐴 = 𝐵𝐾 𝛾 , where 𝐵 denotes the level of total factor productivity.…”

Section: Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…5 He reveals that the long-run per capita output growth rate can be positive if the absolute value of the negative population growth rate is large. Sasaki (2015) builds a small open economy growth model with negative population growth, and investigates the relationship between trade patterns and economic growth. Sasaki and Hoshida (2017) introduce negative population growth into Jones ' (1995) semi-endogenous growth model.…”

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confidence: 99%

Non‐renewable resources and the possibility of sustainable economic development in an economy with positive or negative population growth

Sasaki

2021

Bulletin of Econ Res

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The purpose of this study is to investigate how the longrun growth rate of per capita output is determined when an economy is subject to non-renewable resource constraints and the population growth is negative by using a theoretical model. From this, we can examine the effect of population decline and the effect of depletion of natural resources on economic growth. Our results show that irrespective of whether the population growth rate is positive or negative, the long-run growth rate of per capita output can be positive depending on conditions. This result suggests that even an economy with non-renewable resources and declining population can obtain sustainable economic growth.

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“…Strulik and Weisdorf (2014) show how child costs and survival shaped the industrial revolution and the demographic transition, while Ferreira et al (2016) argue that trade specialization played an indispensable role in supporting the industrial revolution. Sasaki (2015) examines the relationship between international trade and industrialization, when population growth is negative. 6 In Azarnert (2004) I consider the effect of the opportunities abroad for the high-skilled taxpayers on taxation and then economic growth.…”

Section: Demand Sidementioning

confidence: 99%

Trade, Luxury Goods, and a Growth-Enhancing Tariff

Azarnert

2017

Macroecon. Dynam.

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Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in EconStor may Trade, Luxury Goods and a Growth Enhancing Tariff AbstractThis article presents a Ricardian model of trade with learning-by-doing to study the effect of barriers to trade in products with low growth potential on the long-run economic growth. The model shows that, when elasticity of demand for the product with a lower learning potential is greater than unity, a tariff imposed on this product can shift the demand toward the product with a higher learning potential, thus enhancing growth in the exporter economy. Therefore, although with some possible negative effect on the welfare in the short run, barriers for the export of natural luxury goods may be beneficial for developing economies in the long run, since they increase their incentive to develop sectors with higher growth potential.JEL-Codes: F110, F150, F410, O410.

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International Trade and Industrialization With Negative Population Growth

Cited by 8 publications

References 16 publications

Analysis of determinants of Indonesian agricultural exports

Analysis of determinants of Indonesian agricultural exports

Non‐renewable resources and the possibility of sustainable economic development in an economy with positive or negative population growth

Trade, Luxury Goods, and a Growth-Enhancing Tariff

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