International Trade Implications of Highly Pathogenic Poultry Disease Events

Abstract

Animal disease events can lead to international trade restrictions which can vary in duration, products included, and geographical extent. Accounting for multilateral resistance between trading partners, a general gravity model of trade is estimated with a Hausman-Taylor and a Hausman-Taylor seemingly unrelated estimator to evaluate the trade quantity impact by commodity resulting from highly pathogenic poultry disease events in 24 exporting markets. Commodity specific results show that quantity traded and products demanded during a disease event differ by commodities. Understanding these impacts can better prepare exporters for potential changes in trade quantity given a disease event.

The Application of an Augmented Gravity Model to Measure the Effects of a Regionalization of Potential Risk Distribution of the US Cull Sow Market

“…Through use of a gravity model it found that regions of the most extensive inventory are more likely to trade with each other, regardless of distance than those with small populations [ 23 ]. Researchers have also used augmented gravity modeling to assess the impact of disease outbreaks in the US on poultry and poultry product trade [ 31 ]. Both studies show that the gravity model’s use could quantify various impacts on an industry, such as disease, on bilateral trade.…”

“…While augmented gravity models have been used exhaustively for international and local trade agreements, their application to understanding animal marketing is limited and within swine nonexistent. While some work exists [ 23 , 31 ], none have focused on movement within the US swine industry. This study implements the augmented gravity model to study the effects of regionalized standstills on animal movement in the cull sow marketing channel.…”