Objective-To understand mammographers' perception of individual women's breast cancer risk.Materials and Methods-Radiologists interpreting screening mammography examinations completed a mailed survey consisting of questions pertaining to demographic and clinical practice characteristics, as well as 2 vignettes describing different risk profiles of women. Respondents were asked to estimate the probability of a breast cancer diagnosis in the next 5 years for each vignette. Vignette responses were plotted against mean recall rates in actual clinical practice.Results-The survey was returned by 77% of eligible radiologists. Ninety-three percent of radiologists overestimated risk in the vignette involving a 70-year-old woman; 96% overestimated risk in the vignette involving a 41-year-old woman. Radiologists who more accurately estimated breast cancer risk were younger, worked full-time, were affiliated with an academic medical center, had fellowship training, had fewer than 10 years experience interpreting mammograms, and worked more than 40% of the time in breast imaging. However, only age was statistically significant. No association was found between radiologists' risk estimate and their recall rate.
Conclusion-U.S. radiologists have a heightened perception of breast cancer risk.Keywords perception; risk; pretest probability Clinicians routinely use information about patient risk when making medical decisions. [1][2][3][4] This risk assessment is based on their understanding of disease prevalence and the impact of patient history. Bayes' theorem, used intuitively by many clinicians, utilizes sensitivity, specificity, and pretest probability to determine the positive predictive value that a patient has a particular disease given a positive test for that disease. 5,6 As a result, a clinician's 12 This statistic may be somewhat misleading, however, as it is not an estimate for a short time interval (1-5 years) but a lifetime risk, and it is a risk of a diagnosis, not a death.US radiologists have a higher recall rate than do their counterparts in other countries. 13,14 Thus it is reasonable to ask if heightened perception of risk exists among US radiologists, and whether this heightened perception is associated with higher recall rates among radiologists. In this study, we describe radiologists' perception of breast cancer risk at the level of an individual woman. We then use a unique link with actual clinical practice in the community to see if perception of breast cancer risk is associated with recall rate (the percentage of screening mammograms interpreted as abnormal and requiring additional evaluation).
METHODS
Study PopulationThis community-based, multicenter observational study utilizes a unique collaboration among 3 geographically and clinically distinct breast cancer screening programs: a nonprofit health plan in the Pacific Northwest, Group Health Cooperative Breast Cancer Surveillance System; 15,16 the New Hampshire Mammography Network, 17 which captures >85% of women having mammography in the state...